Stratfor released their take on today’s general election in Canada and forecasted what would happen if Quebec were ever to seperate:
There would be, for example, no currency union or passport union. Quebec would be left with very few prospects—though one of those would be to tax the tar out of commerce flowing between Canada’s two now-separated halves. ... At that point, the maritime provinces of Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edwards Island could face the unappetizing option of helplessly watching their economies dwindle, or joining with the colossus to the south in fact if not in name. Other provinces soon would face a similar choice, with the prairie provinces—and Alberta in particular—most likely to see a southern association as in their best interests.
In other words, Upper Canada would be the only Canada left.
I would like to point out that Quebec is a large province, as you can see by the map. I would also like to point out that all that northern half is native land, so don’t expect a separate Quebec to look exactly as it does now.
I can see a couple of alternate scenarios playing out if Quebec seperated. One would be that they give the natives a better deal than Canada, maintaining their borders. Two, the natives decide to stay with Canada, thereby maintaining the “sea to shining sea” geographic integrity of Canada. Or three, the natives decide they want their own country too, a la UNPO.
Now, allow me to reveal my pessimist realist roots here. If the Quebecois don’t want to let the natives go, either back to Canada proper or as their own country, we could be looking at another Ireland. Quebec isn’t only the home of terrorists in Canada, but also the site of the Oka Crisis. Canada has a history of native uprisings such as in Ipperwash. Thankfully, the Quebecois have a tendency to vote for the Bloc nationally, but for Federalists locally. And the way the polls are looking now don’t expect any movement on the seperatism issue for a few more years.
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COMMENTS / 17 COMMENTS
Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 23 Jan 06 at 9:01 pmBurn Canada Burn
The world’s greatest enemy to peace shall soon splinter, like the other totalitarian nightmares of the past.
;-)
John Robb added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 12:57 amYou subscribe to Stratfor?
Nathan Hamm added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 1:11 amI don’t pay terribly close attention to their reports as I’m not a subscriber, but what comes through on Central Asia through my Google news alerts has rarely inspired much awe.
For whatever it’s worth, an unnamed operative with whom I was discussing Stratfor passed on a description of their offices as “...like a fraternity—A Revenge of the Nerdz/Animal House hybrid.”
ElamBend added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 4:09 amI agree with the much more knowledgable Nathan Hamm, I’m not very impressed by Stratfor.
I don’t particularly agree with their analysis of a possible Canadian breakup. Perhaps the Maritimes would have to seek closer ties with the U.S. I don’t see Quebec becoming protectionist, despite their obvious (to me) leanings of doing business like that. Indeed, the last time they came close to passing a seccessionist vote, I seem to remember one BQ politician claiming that an independant Quebec would surely be quickly made part of NAFTA.
As for Alberta, if Canada the whole can get by on free-rider defense, then oil-rich Alberta certainly can. All that oil provides a lever with which to negotiate favorable trade treaties with its most important customers…er neighbors, the U.S. and B.C.
Ontario would remain a rump Canada and Manitoba and Sask. would likely stay on, also, taking largesse from federal Canada.
Myself, I don’t see really leaving. Given that they take in more cash than any other province, they have a good thing going inside Canada. Outside Canada they would be in economic straights unless they reformed their economy. Even if they did break off, I think Canada would remain whole, but with a re-working of the confederacy that would seriously reduce the federal footprint. A wild card would be the northern territories with their ever more important north ports and all the crown lands, especially in the west. They would be quite a prize for a western premier and they would likely be the price of entry to the U.S. (as happened with the western U.S. states), an aweful steep price if you can get a trade agreement and free-ride on the defense.
Personally, the idea of more America apeals to my more chauvanist side (sorry), but the paranoid libertarian in me like alternative English countries close by.
Pavlov3 added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 5:06 amI remember a Deep Thoughts quote that appeals to me (to paraphrase) “I see a world without war, with no defenses, I see us conquering that world, they would never expect it.”
It is time to take Canada while they are squabbling and before Harper makes them build armed forces larger than Florida’s. The insurgency will cost us many burned McDonalds, Starbucks and Hummer dealerships but our foe has no binding alliances with countries that will fight for it. (except us) Why hasn’t this occured to the evil, worse than Hitler war monger Bush yet? Oh yea…maybe because he isn’t evil.
ElamBend added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 12:40 pmWhy take what you have already?
J.Kende added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 4:47 pmCant we just pull a Mexico on Canada and send 15 million Americans north of the border? We just make sure they are the type that will vote for integration with the States once they gain their Canadian citizenship.
monocrat added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 5:58 pmI wonder if Congress would admit them to the Union: perhaps the only benefit to the present fifty States would be integration of customs and immigration policy at the cost of diluted voting power. But Congress likely would admit willing Anglophones; I think the only ever denial of admission was directed to Haiti.
ElamBend added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 7:59 pmActually, at one point, Sicily was agitating for admission, though never formally.
Younghusband added these pithy words on 24 Jan 06 at 8:17 pmMonocrat, Congress would definitely admit Canadian provinces based on resource wealth alone. Stay tuned for an upcoming post on Canada-US water disputes.
kushibo added these pithy words on 25 Jan 06 at 3:00 amIt is time to take Canada while they are squabbling and before Harper makes them build armed forces larger than Florida’s. The insurgency will cost us many burned McDonalds, Starbucks and Hummer dealerships but our foe has no binding alliances with countries that will fight for it. (except us) Why hasn’t this occured to the evil, worse than Hitler war monger Bush yet? Oh yea”¦maybe because he isn’t evil.
Hear! Hear! Canada is a basket case compared to the United States. People die while waiting for proper health care in their egalitarian system. Their political instability means we don’t know who is ruling from one year to the next. There is infighting to the nth degree.
It’s only a matter of time before someone takes over Canada. I think the United States should do it now, annex the place, and bestow on them the goodness of the North American Co-Prosperity Sphere.
Pavlov3 added these pithy words on 25 Jan 06 at 7:45 amActually I was joking. I hope I have not offended our Northern overlords. It is quite clear that they have taken control of the one element of US culture that can paralize our nation through insidious decades long infiltrations: TV and Movies. They can turn out the lights any time they want, I can smell the maple syrup in my apartment at night after my minder teams have left. And the RMP, don’t get me started, they are not the white toothed dudley’s we believe, stone cold killers, every one of them. Did you ever wonder why a Canadian quarter will jam a vending machine every time? Could it be on purpose? I predict the invasion will start with mass un-explained starvation on US campuses.
PN NJ added these pithy words on 25 Jan 06 at 3:19 pmHow long will the Quebecois last if the natives decide to shut down Hydro Quebec?
Dwight Ken added these pithy words on 26 Jan 06 at 11:27 pmCanada Reasserts Arctic Sovereignty
.. Harper .. would dramatically increase Canada’s military presence in the Arctic North. He intends to construct and deploy three new armed icebreaking ships and construct a $1.7 billion deep-water port and an underwater network of “listening posts.”“The single most important duty of the federal government is to protect and defend our national sovereignty,” Harper said in the December speech. “There are new and disturbing reports of American nuclear submarines passing though Canadian waters without obtaining the permission of, or even notifying, the Canadian government.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060126/ap_on_re_ca/canada_us
And Japan was making a big fuss when a single Chinese nuclear submarines passed though Japanese waters!
Could this be the beginning of the icebreaker arm race?
LOL :-O
Dwight Ken added these pithy words on 26 Jan 06 at 11:34 pmoops.. “icebreaker arms race”
