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Chirol
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Chirol

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December 14th, 2005

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German Foreign Policy Turning?

There has indeed been a lot going on in the news lately relevant not only to Germany, but its future foreign policy. To begin with, former Chancellor Schröder rather suspiciously joined the ranks of Russian Gazprom, becoming an advisor to a new pipeline project which will deliver natural gas from Russia to Germany directly, under the Baltic Sea. Needless to say, this is thoroughly suspect considering he attended the signing of the pipeline deal just months ago on September 8th. The Washington Post immediately cried foul labeling him a sellout. David’s Medienkritik goes on to note

Remember how Schroeder was always looking out for the “little-guy” in Germany? Remember how he was always the champion of “social justice.” Remember how he always demanded other Germans show solidarity with the poor and unemployed. And then he can’t even wait one month after losing the Chancellery to take a multi-million dollar a year job representing the wealthy stockholders of a Russian gas pipeline company that he helped to promote while in office? The fact that the company is run by a former East German secret police officer who was close to Putin in his KGB years is truly disgusting.

What was his response:

In the past, I supported this project politically because I thought it made sense. I’m only 61 years old and I want to work. I don’t want to get in my wife’s way at home.

Needless to say, German politicians as well as your average German are rather upset. Regardless of whether this actually did influence his decision making with regard to the pipeline, it calls much of his past into question, such as his opposition to the Iraq war which of course was only about oil. If one thing has been proven, it’s that Schröder clearly made political decisions based on energy and greed, while his outrageous charge about the US remains unproven and unsupported.

Next up is everyone’s favorite Iranian who has just repeated his claim that the holocaust is a complete myth:

“They have created a myth today that they call the massacre of Jews and they consider it a principle above God, religions and the prophets,” he said. On live TV, he called for Europe or North America – even Alaska – to host a Jewish state, not the Middle East.

What do these two events mean for German foreign policy? Both weaken Germany’s previous policies and continue to chisel away wiggling room. With Schröder’s so-called legacy already severely damaged by the man himself, the SPD is being forced to distance itself from not only Schröder but his pro-Russian policies. This leaves them with an easy cover should they begin to shift their foreign policy not to mention giving the CDU a golden opportunity to force them to do so.

Secondly, although Germans are as peace-loving now as they were war-mongering in the 30s and 40s, the Iranian government is trying very hard to push them over the edge. Even Vice-Chancellor Franz Müntefering has said Germany will start removing the barriers to “political consequences” for Iran’s nuclear program and the Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, exclaimed “I cannot hide the fact that this weighs on bilateral relations and on the chances for the negotiation process,”. Wow, “the chances.” It will be interesting to see how much more Germany will take.

Thus, these two events, completely outside the control of the current government, have served to undermine Germany’s previous policy with regard to Russia, Iran and have tarnished the SPD’s past few years of policy (how much remains to be seen). All of this significantly strengthens Chancellor Merkel’s position domestially giving her more leeway in her upcoming meeting with President Bush and his advisors from January 12th to 14th.

Update: Scraps of Moscow has an excellent post on the Russo-German revolving door system.

Comments to this entry

Mitch H.
December 14, 2005
5:24 pm
A Jewish state in Alaska, eh? I'm surprised he didn't just propose their exile to Siberia while he was at it.
Kirk H. Sowell
December 14, 2005
6:54 pm
Herr Shroder's relationship with Vlad the Opposition Impaler goes back some time, as I'm sure you are aware. I remember a year or so ago he was asked if he thought that Vlad was a "crystal clear democrat," and he answered in the affirmative. One thing which would be interesting would be to timeline the initial news of this deal with Shroder's backing down from his insistence that he had won the election and should remain chancellor. The scraps of Moscow link indicates that it was not long after the elections when initial word of this came out. I wonder if Schroder changed his tune because the German media was making fun of him (according to what I read in the English version of Der Spiegel), or because he got a better offer?

In re to Iran, the reality is that Germany has had ZERO influence with Iran for some time. This was perfectly exemplified several years ago when a German court found that Iran had sponsored a killing of regime opponents in Germany, recalled its ambassador from Iran, saw Iran give nothing, and instead demand a German apology for the insult. There has never been any indication that I can see that Germany foreign policy has curbed any significant Iranian policy vis-a-vis terrorism or nuclear weapons. A change in German foreign policy would be significant mainly for those in the United States who believe that the U.S. must act against threats only in a "multilateral" way, with "multilateral" being defined as including Germany and/or France.
Dan tdaxp
December 14, 2005
9:15 pm
Er... a certain Austrian born chancellor was rather annoying, but at least his early pro-Russia policies were a mirage...
Dusty
December 14, 2005
9:18 pm
I suspect the German government could somehow relay the message that there are sudden delays in the Gazprom project which may send it back to the planning shelf for quite a while, if it wanted to.

And though I don't know the in and outs of the legal process there, suits here in the US slow big projects all the time for lesser issues than this.

It's a question of who has the bigger nads in naked politics.
Bill Petti
December 14, 2005
10:37 pm
Schröder's stance on the Iraq war may have been about economic interests (personal and national) to some degree, but it was first and foremost about salvaging a stagnant political campaign--domestic signaling won out over international signaling, and he spent the last 2-3 years trying to mend fences as a result...
Grendel
December 15, 2005
12:32 am
Herr Schröder had a better feeling for politics when he still was in power, I can only hope our politicians are going to talk turkey with a code of conduct to separate the wheat from the chaff - the scandal over the CIA flights is not even completely unravelled yet, I wonder what's coming next.
Current World Affairs - CWA » Blog Archive » Schröder gets a pipeline job (and criticism)
December 15, 2005
5:19 am
[...] More about Schröder and dirt at least at the Coming Anarchy and at the Scraps of Moscow. [...]
Nathan Hamm
December 15, 2005
9:56 am
I should just throw on the heap that Germany is giving a wink and a nod to Uzbekistan's fantasies about the rest of the west trying to install a caliphate in Karimov's stead with the out-of-step with the US and EU base deal. And between Turkmenbashi and Almatov, Germany's becoming the country of choice for healthcare for Central Asian scumbags. Maybe it should consider quitting NATO and the EU and joining the SCO, CSTO, and CIS instead.
Kirk H. Sowell
December 15, 2005
8:07 pm
The Brussels Journal has a more small-state European look at this issue, focusing on how this pipeline project will allow Russia to continue to supply Germany even if it cuts off supply to Eastern Europe, if Moscow wants to squeeze them for political reasons as it often tries to do with Georgia, the Ukraine, etc. This really is a betrayal of Central and East European countries.

On the positive side, if the German Social Democrats have any sense of principle at all, they will make Schroder persona non grata after this, and Europe will at least be rid of him politically.
Chirol
December 15, 2005
8:25 pm
Kirk: Absolutely right. One of Russia and the CIS' favorite hobbies is cutting energy supplies to neighboring countries. The same thing happens all the time in Central Asia. This pipeline has strained relations between the Baltic states, Poland, and the Ukraine with German and we'll see where this drives them. This will no doubt be another push towards greater opposition by new EU members to a Franco-German dominated EU.
Kirk H. Sowell
December 21, 2005
3:31 am
One more comment on Schroder and his new Master. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Russia was now putting the sqeeze on the Ukraine again through - you guessed it - Gazprom. The original deal gave the Ukraine cheap gas in exchange for giving Russia access to pipes it need to transport most of its gas exports. Now Russia has decided to vastly increase prices to not only the Ukraine but the Baltic states as well.

In further Putinocracy news... There are reports that Putin has offered former Commerce Secretary (and Bush friend) Don Evans a similar position at Rosneft. As of yesterday he was still thinking about it. Let's hope he doesn't accept. As for Schroder, world chessmaster Garry Kasparov had this to say in yesterday's Wall Street Journal:

One small step for Vladimir Putin, one giant leap for corruption in the West. Just days after being pushed out of office as chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schröder made sure he wouldn't add to the high rate of unemployment he left behind. Last week he accepted a top post with Russian energy giant Gazprom, the company in charge of a controversial gas pipeline project that he actively supported as chancellor.

The dubious ethicality of this move and the speed with which it was made lead to many obvious questions about whether or not Mr. Schröder abused his office to set up this deal, especially as he was trailing badly in the polls for most of the campaign against Angela Merkel. But the groundwork for his new job was laid out in advance as part of a well-organized operation that brought in capital before personnel.

Mathias Warnig, as head of Russian operations for Dresdner Bank, first brought in a deal to purchase 33% of Gazprombank in August. (Dresdner also helped the Kremlin pick the bones of the Yukos oil company headed by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, now in a Siberian jail.) Accordingly, Mr. Warnig was given a top position at the North European Gas Pipeline Company. Finally everything was ready for the arrival of Mr. Schröder. The deal keeps everything in the family as Mr. Warnig was a spy for the East German secret police, the Stasi, at the same time Mr. Putin was running agents for the KGB in Dresden. As Mr. Putin himself has said, there is no such thing as a former KGB agent.

In reality this is the lesser story -- that Germany's most powerful politicians and businessmen can be purchased the way a Russian oligarch might buy an aristocratic Bavarian estate to gain entry to high society. The larger picture is of how Mr. Putin has made the nation's energy resources the center of his ruling clique that has erased the lines between public and private power and assets. Does the state run Gazprom or does Gazprom run the state? Mr. Putin has made a priority of further tightening the unholy bond between his regime's internal and external goals and the company that provides most of the natural gas to Central and Eastern Europe. They are not state-run companies; they are the state...


It will be interesting to see how this plays out in German public opinion over the long-term, whether or not they will eventually shrug this off.
Kirk H. Sowell
December 21, 2005
3:38 am
The word today - I just read this - is that Evans has turned Putin down. An editorial in yesterday's WSJ saying that acceptance would be shameful might have helped him make up his mind.