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	<title>Comments on: Divide et&#160;impera</title>
	<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/</link>
	<description>Speak Victorian, Think Pagan</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2008 22:58:42 +0000</pubDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.2</generator>
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		<title>By: lirelou</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54263</link>
		<dc:creator>lirelou</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Dec 2005 04:16:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54263</guid>
		<description>Sonagi, Why a "quick coup"? Just as the Kims assumed the Japanese emperor's mantle of divinity for their own leadership, could not a strong general also decide to leave a Kim on the throne while he ruled from the background, as in the days of the Shogunate? But, then, so far I see no evidence that such a Shogun is ready to assume power, so it looks as if after the Kims comes the "deluge".</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sonagi, Why a &#8220;quick coup&#8221;? Just as the Kims assumed the Japanese emperor&#8217;s mantle of divinity for their own leadership, could not a strong general also decide to leave a Kim on the throne while he ruled from the background, as in the days of the Shogunate? But, then, so far I see no evidence that such a Shogun is ready to assume power, so it looks as if after the Kims comes the &#8220;deluge&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Ron Patterson</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54257</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron Patterson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Dec 2005 03:28:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54257</guid>
		<description>Sonagi , I think you are dead on about Kim's health.  He really looked unwell.  Those $600.00 bottles of cognac must not be setting well with him.   
  A famine pimp great image..  But still think there is some evidence that he is short a few card from the deck.  
  Some say that those who would seize power after his death are worse, the hard core generals who have nothing to lose.  Better this whole business ends quickly.  I think Korea shows what happens when power is not applied correctly or in a limited way.  hindsight is 20/20 but MacArthur may have been correct.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sonagi , I think you are dead on about Kim&#8217;s health.  He really looked unwell.  Those $600.00 bottles of cognac must not be setting well with him.</p>
<p>  A famine pimp great image..  But still think there is some evidence that he is short a few card from the deck.<br />
  Some say that those who would seize power after his death are worse, the hard core generals who have nothing to lose.  Better this whole business ends quickly.  I think Korea shows what happens when power is not applied correctly or in a limited way.  hindsight is 20/20 but MacArthur may have been correct.</p>
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		<title>By: Sonagi</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54232</link>
		<dc:creator>Sonagi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Dec 2005 01:42:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54232</guid>
		<description>I reject disparagements of Kim as a looney.  He has maintained power for ten years by pimping a famine to get food and energy, by becoming the world's top counterfeiters, by smoozing the South with cultural exchanges, by dangling nuclear weapons in front of Uncle Sam, and most of all, by playing on the growing division between the US and South Korea.

Kim Jong-il will never face retribution unless the Koreans dig up his corpse.  Watching Hu Jintao and Kim Jong-il walk the red carpet together, I noticed that Hu strode confidently with squared shoulders while Kim just slouched along.  KJI is reputed to be in poor health, and I would not be surprised if he died before the end of this decade.   A quick coup will topple whichever son inherits the throne.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I reject disparagements of Kim as a looney.  He has maintained power for ten years by pimping a famine to get food and energy, by becoming the world&#8217;s top counterfeiters, by smoozing the South with cultural exchanges, by dangling nuclear weapons in front of Uncle Sam, and most of all, by playing on the growing division between the US and South Korea.</p>
<p>Kim Jong-il will never face retribution unless the Koreans dig up his corpse.  Watching Hu Jintao and Kim Jong-il walk the red carpet together, I noticed that Hu strode confidently with squared shoulders while Kim just slouched along.  <span class="caps">KJI</span> is reputed to be in poor health, and I would not be surprised if he died before the end of this decade.   A quick coup will topple whichever son inherits the throne.</p>
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		<title>By: Ron Patterson</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54230</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron Patterson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Dec 2005 01:11:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54230</guid>
		<description>Good points by Dan and Sonagi!  But I wonder whether their will be any retribution against Kim or his henchmen.   Kim is viewed by many in the South as a man who has kept Korean cultue "pure" and the ideas of "Juche" independence strike a strong chord in Koreans hearts.  
  A united Korea frightens both japan and China.  It would be a threat to japan and seen as a flashpoint for Chinese who do not want instability on their borders.  
  The malnutrition issue is a real one.  Reports of stunted adults, mentally challenged people,due to starvation show the true horror of the Kim regime.  
  As much as I feel Bush and Co. have made many mistakes in the region standing firm against Kim and his gangsters should be appauled by the world.  Japan and the North standing toe to toe with the North nuclear and  the Japanese capable of nuclear weapons and the Chinese backing the North and the U.S. backing japan.  Really, really scary when you think of the reports of Kims' mental instability.    
   The South really has a schizophrenic viewpoint looking to the U.S. for protection but hating America for "interfering' in their family feud.  SAd that fiftyfive years after the war the U.S. is still stuck in Korea.  Another attempt to save "democracy'</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good points by Dan and Sonagi!  But I wonder whether their will be any retribution against Kim or his henchmen.   Kim is viewed by many in the South as a man who has kept Korean cultue &#8220;pure&#8221; and the ideas of &#8220;Juche&#8221; independence strike a strong chord in Koreans hearts.</p>
<p>  A united Korea frightens both japan and China.  It would be a threat to japan and seen as a flashpoint for Chinese who do not want instability on their borders.<br />
  The malnutrition issue is a real one.  Reports of stunted adults, mentally challenged people,due to starvation show the true horror of the Kim regime.<br />
  As much as I feel Bush and Co. have made many mistakes in the region standing firm against Kim and his gangsters should be appauled by the world.  Japan and the North standing toe to toe with the North nuclear and  the Japanese capable of nuclear weapons and the Chinese backing the North and the U.S. backing japan.  Really, really scary when you think of the reports of Kims&#8217; mental instability.<br />
   The South really has a schizophrenic viewpoint looking to the U.S. for protection but hating America for &#8220;interfering&#8217; in their family feud.  SAd that fiftyfive years after the war the U.S. is still stuck in Korea.  Another attempt to save &#8220;democracy&#8217;</p>
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		<title>By: Sonagi</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54202</link>
		<dc:creator>Sonagi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Dec 2005 19:46:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54202</guid>
		<description>&lt;b&gt;"North and South Korea between them have an army of 1.6 million, how can defense expenditures rise? Both sides are armed to the teeth. A united Korea could be a fearsome beast. "&lt;/b&gt;

The rising expenditures won't be for the military.  The money will be used to upgrade public infrastructure and industrial development in the North.  It is ironic that despite the differences of the participating countries in the six-party talks, it seems that they all share a common interest in delaying reunification as long as possible.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>&#8220;North and South Korea between them have an army of 1.6 million, how can defense expenditures rise? Both sides are armed to the teeth. A united Korea could be a fearsome beast. &#8220;</b></p>
<p>The rising expenditures won&#8217;t be for the military.  The money will be used to upgrade public infrastructure and industrial development in the North.  It is ironic that despite the differences of the participating countries in the six-party talks, it seems that they all share a common interest in delaying reunification as long as possible.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54171</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Dec 2005 17:47:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54171</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Although unification would be costly it would create a state of 80 million japanese hating Koreans.&lt;/i&gt;

A third of whose populace will be stuck with the long-term effects of lifelong malnutrition.  

&lt;i&gt;The South is soft on the North because they will have to live with many of the norths thugs in the future, and hope to make the transition smoother.&lt;/i&gt;

Given the South's history of persecutiong out-of-favor politicians on its own side, I don't think Kim's men have much of a chance in a united Korea.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Although unification would be costly it would create a state of 80 million japanese hating Koreans.</i></p>
<p>A third of whose populace will be stuck with the long-term effects of lifelong malnutrition.</p>
<p><i>The South is soft on the North because they will have to live with many of the norths thugs in the future, and hope to make the transition smoother.</i></p>
<p>Given the South&#8217;s history of persecutiong out-of-favor politicians on its own side, I don&#8217;t think Kim&#8217;s men have much of a chance in a united Korea.</p>
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		<title>By: Ron Patterson</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54073</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron Patterson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Dec 2005 02:07:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54073</guid>
		<description>North and South Korea between them have an army of 1.6 million,  how can defense expenditures rise? Both sides are armed to the teeth.   A united Korea could be a fearsome beast.  Although unification would be costly it would create a state of 80 million japanese hating Koreans.  These are a fierce people who survived living betwee japan, China and Russia.  A united Korea would definitely change the strategic face of Asia.    The South is soft on the North because they will have to live with many of the norths thugs in the future, and hope to make the transition smoother.  Also the South repects Kim's anti japanese stance and believe it or not admire his "firmness"  in dealing with his populace.  Both China and japan are trying to come to grips with the future unification.  Much like Europe struggled to come to terms with a unified Germany</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>North and South Korea between them have an army of 1.6 million,  how can defense expenditures rise? Both sides are armed to the teeth.   A united Korea could be a fearsome beast.  Although unification would be costly it would create a state of 80 million japanese hating Koreans.  These are a fierce people who survived living betwee japan, China and Russia.  A united Korea would definitely change the strategic face of Asia.    The South is soft on the North because they will have to live with many of the norths thugs in the future, and hope to make the transition smoother.  Also the South repects Kim&#8217;s anti japanese stance and believe it or not admire his &#8220;firmness&#8221;  in dealing with his populace.  Both China and japan are trying to come to grips with the future unification.  Much like Europe struggled to come to terms with a unified Germany</p>
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		<title>By: Dan tdaxp</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54037</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan tdaxp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 20:17:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54037</guid>
		<description>Oops!  &lt;a href="http://www.cominganarchy.com/2005/12/10/geopolitical-temptation-in-europe/" rel="nofollow"&gt;Wrong thread!&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops!  <a href="http://www.cominganarchy.com/2005/12/10/geopolitical-temptation-in-europe/" rel="nofollow" >Wrong thread!</a></p>
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		<title>By: Dan tdaxp</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54028</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan tdaxp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 18:45:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54028</guid>
		<description>Excellent post!  I looked at similar issues - nations, states, and places - in &lt;a href="http://tdaxp.blogspirit.com/archive/2005/05/26/a_computer_model_of_national_behavior.html" rel="nofollow"&gt;my thesis&lt;/a&gt;, but your work is more enjoyable, informative, and readable! :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excellent post!  I looked at similar issues &#8211; nations, states, and places &#8211; in <a href="http://tdaxp.blogspirit.com/archive/2005/05/26/a_computer_model_of_national_behavior.html" rel="nofollow" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/comment/tdaxp.blogspirit.com');">my thesis</a>, but your work is more enjoyable, informative, and readable! :-)</p>
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		<title>By: ElamBend</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54027</link>
		<dc:creator>ElamBend</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 18:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54027</guid>
		<description>Sonagi,
You may be on to something there.
Should NK ever open up, I wonder if the n. Koreans will feel any bitter toward the s. Koreans whose only concern for thier [the northerners] civil rights was over regime change and not how that regime treats them.
As much as I am frustrated by the dual game the ROK plays with its chief ally, I am more aghast at the, in my eyes, morally detached manner in which many s. Koreans treat the hardships of their cousins to the north.
It's as if some w. Germans were more concerned that the Honniker government was treated with respect than whether e. Germans were.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sonagi,<br />
You may be on to something there.<br />
Should NK ever open up, I wonder if the n. Koreans will feel any bitter toward the s. Koreans whose only concern for thier [the northerners] civil rights was over regime change and not how that regime treats them.<br />
As much as I am frustrated by the dual game the <span class="caps">ROK</span> plays with its chief ally, I am more aghast at the, in my eyes, morally detached manner in which many s. Koreans treat the hardships of their cousins to the north.<br />
It&#8217;s as if some w. Germans were more concerned that the Honniker government was treated with respect than whether e. Germans were.</p>
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		<title>By: Sonagi</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54012</link>
		<dc:creator>Sonagi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 17:06:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54012</guid>
		<description>North Korea as a buffer state against China?  Hmmm, the NorKs have sent numerous spy submarines to the South and have engaged in lethal military clashes in the Yellow Sea, not to mention assassinations and airplane bombings in the past.  Some buffer state.  Of course, South Koreans are put off by the cost and chaos of immediate reunification.   I think the South's current  strategy of appeasing the North is aimed at replacing China as the North's chief patron.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>North Korea as a buffer state against China?  Hmmm, the NorKs have sent numerous spy submarines to the South and have engaged in lethal military clashes in the Yellow Sea, not to mention assassinations and airplane bombings in the past.  Some buffer state.  Of course, South Koreans are put off by the cost and chaos of immediate reunification.   I think the South&#8217;s current  strategy of appeasing the North is aimed at replacing China as the North&#8217;s chief patron.</p>
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		<title>By: Zhang Fei</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54007</link>
		<dc:creator>Zhang Fei</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 15:46:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54007</guid>
		<description>Singapore is surrounded by two hostile Muslim states and has no interest in becoming a Chinese vassal state. This is why it will keep agitating for out-of-area involvement in the affairs of the region. The ancient Chinese strategic precept of being wary of neighboring powers and allying with distant powers applies here. Except no Chinese strategist would have imagined that the most distant power in question, Uncle Sam, could be over ten thousand miles away (if you understand the seat of American power as DC, on the US mainland).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Singapore is surrounded by two hostile Muslim states and has no interest in becoming a Chinese vassal state. This is why it will keep agitating for out-of-area involvement in the affairs of the region. The ancient Chinese strategic precept of being wary of neighboring powers and allying with distant powers applies here. Except no Chinese strategist would have imagined that the most distant power in question, Uncle Sam, could be over ten thousand miles away (if you understand the seat of American power as DC, on the US mainland).</p>
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		<title>By: Zhang Fei</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54004</link>
		<dc:creator>Zhang Fei</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 15:39:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54004</guid>
		<description>South Korea's position is somewhat understandable, even from a purely self-interested standpoint. It does not want to reunify with North Korea, because the costs are too high. Unifying with North Korea will also deprive SK of a buffer state - it will now face Chinese troops directly across the Yalu River. This probably means security costs will rise dramatically. SK is merely trying to extract maximum benefit from its American ally while minimizing the chances for war with a NK that it knows cannot successfully invade SK, whether using conventional forces or even NK's handful of nukes. This is why SK is annoyed that Uncle Sam is getting confrontational with NK over its nukes. But at the same time, it would like to retain the alliance and the American nuclear umbrella in case NK or China move in the direction of land grabs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>South Korea&#8217;s position is somewhat understandable, even from a purely self-interested standpoint. It does not want to reunify with North Korea, because the costs are too high. Unifying with North Korea will also deprive SK of a buffer state &#8211; it will now face Chinese troops directly across the Yalu River. This probably means security costs will rise dramatically. SK is merely trying to extract maximum benefit from its American ally while minimizing the chances for war with a NK that it knows cannot successfully invade SK, whether using conventional forces or even NK&#8217;s handful of nukes. This is why SK is annoyed that Uncle Sam is getting confrontational with NK over its nukes. But at the same time, it would like to retain the alliance and the American nuclear umbrella in case NK or China move in the direction of land grabs.</p>
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		<title>By: Sonagi</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54003</link>
		<dc:creator>Sonagi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 15:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-54003</guid>
		<description>This week there was a North Korean human rights summit in Seoul.  The Korean media have been very critical of this summit, claiming that the participants are violating the human rights of the North Koreans by aspiring for regime change.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week there was a North Korean human rights summit in Seoul.  The Korean media have been very critical of this summit, claiming that the participants are violating the human rights of the North Koreans by aspiring for regime change.</p>
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		<title>By: ElamBend</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53996</link>
		<dc:creator>ElamBend</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 14:40:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53996</guid>
		<description>There should be no reason, but the US may get face a hostile political movement and generation much as it suffered in the Phillipines.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There should be no reason, but the US may get face a hostile political movement and generation much as it suffered in the Phillipines.</p>
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		<title>By: Curzon</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53920</link>
		<dc:creator>Curzon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 04:01:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53920</guid>
		<description>There is no reason why a united Korea, Japan, and the US can't be the best of friends.  (Or perhaps said better, there _should_ be no reason.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is no reason why a united Korea, Japan, and the US can&#8217;t be the best of friends.  (Or perhaps said better, there <em>should</em> be no reason.)</p>
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		<title>By: Sonagi</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53919</link>
		<dc:creator>Sonagi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 03:56:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53919</guid>
		<description>Sunbin is Chinese, not Korean.

There is a lot of talk about whether the US would remain in Korea after reunification.  Given South Korea's Sunshine policy of propping up the NK regime with food and energy while stifling any domestic criticism, I am pessimistic about reunification in the near future.   The US does not need to wait for reunification.  It can leave anytime.  South Korea is quite capable of defending itself and doesn't need to worry about tanks rolling across the DMZ since the two Koreas are so chummy these days.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sunbin is Chinese, not Korean.</p>
<p>There is a lot of talk about whether the US would remain in Korea after reunification.  Given South Korea&#8217;s Sunshine policy of propping up the NK regime with food and energy while stifling any domestic criticism, I am pessimistic about reunification in the near future.   The US does not need to wait for reunification.  It can leave anytime.  South Korea is quite capable of defending itself and doesn&#8217;t need to worry about tanks rolling across the <span class="caps">DMZ</span> since the two Koreas are so chummy these days.</p>
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		<title>By: ElamBend</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53917</link>
		<dc:creator>ElamBend</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 02:26:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53917</guid>
		<description>When the NK regime falls, the U.S. will still have a reason to have a presence there, it will just be less concurrent with ROK's goals.
An "East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" as an end is perfectly okay and probably desirable.  It was the means by which Japan tried to reach that goal 60 years ago that still has its neighbors suspicious of its intentions. 
I can understand the ROK's position as enunciated by Sun Bin, but I can't help but feel a little betrayed after 50 years of defending their border.  However, I must admit that an unstated factor is that the ROK must see the relation between the US and Japan as closer than its relationship with the US (and as zero sum, i.e. the US either supports Nippon or Chosen, but not both).

Hopefully, we will pass through this emerging reorganization of power as peacefully as possible.  Admittedly the US wants to remain dominate, but a close secondary goal is to remain part of the equation in the center of the rising powers for the next centuries.  (i.e. if we can't solely be on top, we'd like to remain rich)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the NK regime falls, the U.S. will still have a reason to have a presence there, it will just be less concurrent with <span class="caps">ROK</span>&#8217;s goals.<br />
An &#8220;East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere&#8221; as an end is perfectly okay and probably desirable.  It was the means by which Japan tried to reach that goal 60 years ago that still has its neighbors suspicious of its intentions.<br />
I can understand the <span class="caps">ROK</span>&#8217;s position as enunciated by Sun Bin, but I can&#8217;t help but feel a little betrayed after 50 years of defending their border.  However, I must admit that an unstated factor is that the <span class="caps">ROK</span> must see the relation between the US and Japan as closer than its relationship with the <span class="caps">US </span>(and as zero sum, i.e. the US either supports Nippon or Chosen, but not both).</p>
<p>Hopefully, we will pass through this emerging reorganization of power as peacefully as possible.  Admittedly the US wants to remain dominate, but a close secondary goal is to remain part of the equation in the center of the rising powers for the next centuries.  (i.e. if we can&#8217;t solely be on top, we&#8217;d like to remain rich)</p>
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		<title>By: Ron Patterson</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53915</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron Patterson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 02:02:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53915</guid>
		<description>When Kim's regime in North Korea falls which seems inevitable, the U.S. will have less reason to have a large military presence in the region, and of course will lose much of its influence with the South.  The Asian states are looking to build a stable system to replace the American influence.  As for Japan can anyone say East Asia co-prosperity Sphere.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When Kim&#8217;s regime in North Korea falls which seems inevitable, the U.S. will have less reason to have a large military presence in the region, and of course will lose much of its influence with the South.  The Asian states are looking to build a stable system to replace the American influence.  As for Japan can anyone say East Asia co-prosperity Sphere.</p>
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		<title>By: sun bin</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53904</link>
		<dc:creator>sun bin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 00:08:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53904</guid>
		<description>...the decision to call off the 3-country meeting is made together by Korea and China. (I think the news report also said it was unclear whether there is a China-Korea meeting...the reporters hinted that is likely)

---
Saru, you are probably right. If China is more assertive than just countering the Japanese assertiveness, I would be surprised. Because that goes against the Deng doctrine of 'laying low and do not lead'
one example is the "low lying approach in the WTO meeting as reported in WSJ":http://chinatalk.suddenlaunch3.com/index.cgi?board=chinamatters&#38;action=display&#38;num=1134173213
although WTO is not the perfect analogy here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>...the decision to call off the 3-country meeting is made together by Korea and China. (I think the news report also said it was unclear whether there is a China-Korea meeting&#8230;the reporters hinted that is likely)<br />
&#8212;-<br />
Saru, you are probably right. If China is more assertive than just countering the Japanese assertiveness, I would be surprised. Because that goes against the Deng doctrine of &#8216;laying low and do not lead&#8217;<br />
one example is the <a href="http://chinatalk.suddenlaunch3.com/index.cgi?board=chinamatters&#038;action=display&#038;num=1134173213" title="" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/comment/chinatalk.suddenlaunch3.com');">low lying approach in the <span class="caps">WTO</span> meeting as reported in <span class="caps">WSJ</span></a><br />
although <span class="caps">WTO</span> is not the perfect analogy here.</p>
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		<title>By: sun bin</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53903</link>
		<dc:creator>sun bin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Dec 2005 00:03:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53903</guid>
		<description>tom is mostly right. but add to that is the japan factor (Korean's distrust). It is a also belligerent Japan that has pushed Seoul into arms of a friendly China. 

Korea has come out of the cold war mentality against the North, or vs China. You really cannot blame them for this.

having said that, it will continue to be cautious and suspicious of the large neighbor China.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tom is mostly right. but add to that is the japan factor (Korean&#8217;s distrust). It is a also belligerent Japan that has pushed Seoul into arms of a friendly China.</p>
<p>Korea has come out of the cold war mentality against the North, or vs China. You really cannot blame them for this.</p>
<p>having said that, it will continue to be cautious and suspicious of the large neighbor China.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53885</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2005 23:25:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53885</guid>
		<description>Adamu,

I think it's pretty clear what the ROK is thinking, and the second paragraph in the second blockquote captures it nicely.  They see China as a rising regional power and the key to their long-range future.  Getting an earlier start on building a good relationship is something that makes sense to them.  The other big incentive for them is Chinese influence over the DPRK; personally, I think the ROK's China position only makes sense if China is going to help them manage the Kim regime through its eventual downfall, including ensuring that the ROK doessn't get attacked.  Until the Kim regime falls and/or the U.S. withdraws from the region, the ROK will keep the U.S. security relationship alive, but I don't expect that relationship to survive much past the death of North Korea.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Adamu,</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s pretty clear what the <span class="caps">ROK</span> is thinking, and the second paragraph in the second blockquote captures it nicely.  They see China as a rising regional power and the key to their long-range future.  Getting an earlier start on building a good relationship is something that makes sense to them.  The other big incentive for them is Chinese influence over the <span class="caps">DPRK</span>; personally, I think the <span class="caps">ROK</span>&#8217;s China position only makes sense if China is going to help them manage the Kim regime through its eventual downfall, including ensuring that the <span class="caps">ROK</span> doessn&#8217;t get attacked.  Until the Kim regime falls and/or the U.S. withdraws from the region, the <span class="caps">ROK</span> will keep the U.S. security relationship alive, but I don&#8217;t expect that relationship to survive much past the death of North Korea.</p>
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		<title>By: Sonagi</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53884</link>
		<dc:creator>Sonagi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2005 23:24:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53884</guid>
		<description>Korea will try to straddle the middle between Beijing and Japan.  Koreans see their nation as a small country that has long struggled to maintain its sovereignty against wars and meddling by more powerful countries.  The Koreans will not throw themselves into one camp and be dominated by a more powerful neighbor.  As for ASEAN, well, Koreans see the countries of Southeast Asia as nothing more than cheap labor to work in their factories.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Korea will try to straddle the middle between Beijing and Japan.  Koreans see their nation as a small country that has long struggled to maintain its sovereignty against wars and meddling by more powerful countries.  The Koreans will not throw themselves into one camp and be dominated by a more powerful neighbor.  As for <span class="caps">ASEAN</span>, well, Koreans see the countries of Southeast Asia as nothing more than cheap labor to work in their factories.</p>
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		<title>By: Adamu</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53858</link>
		<dc:creator>Adamu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2005 22:33:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53858</guid>
		<description>If you read the Nikkei "East Asian regionalism is a topic that comes up time and again... They hold symposia on it and whatnot":http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/future/remark0505.html

It's also on the agenda of the (influential business lobby) Nippon Keidanren's "Vision 2025 policy":http://www.keidanren.or.jp/english/policy/vision2025.pdf"

Aso's "Defining Japan speech":http://www.infojapan.org/announce/fm/aso/speech0512.html is historic and deserves close attention. He admits that Japan has its problems but insists that it is still the "leader" and "stabilizer" of the region where it counts. The way I see it, Japan has always seen East Asia as its backyard, so a regionally integrated Asia with Japan as its leader is just a peaceful way to pull off the "Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere" that had been the pre-war dream of Japan.

The way I see it, the ROK would be shooting itself in the foot by alienating Japan and the US and getting closer to China. I have no idea what they are thinking.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you read the Nikkei <a href="http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/future/remark0505.html" title="" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/comment/www.mofa.go.jp');">East Asian regionalism is a topic that comes up time and again&#8230; They hold symposia on it and whatnot</a></p>
<p>It&#8217;s also on the agenda of the (influential business lobby) Nippon Keidanren&#8217;s <a href="http://www.keidanren.or.jp/english/policy/vision2025.pdf" title="" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/comment/www.keidanren.or.jp');">Vision 2025 policy</a>&#8221;</p>
<p>Aso&#8217;s <a href="http://www.infojapan.org/announce/fm/aso/speech0512.html" title="" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/comment/www.infojapan.org');">Defining Japan speech</a> is historic and deserves close attention. He admits that Japan has its problems but insists that it is still the &#8220;leader&#8221; and &#8220;stabilizer&#8221; of the region where it counts. The way I see it, Japan has always seen East Asia as its backyard, so a regionally integrated Asia with Japan as its leader is just a peaceful way to pull off the &#8220;Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere&#8221; that had been the pre-war dream of Japan.</p>
<p>The way I see it, the <span class="caps">ROK</span> would be shooting itself in the foot by alienating Japan and the US and getting closer to China. I have no idea what they are thinking.</p>
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		<title>By: Saru</title>
		<link>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53852</link>
		<dc:creator>Saru</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2005 22:17:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://cominganarchy.com/2005/12/09/divide-et-impera/#comment-53852</guid>
		<description>Sun Bin: You're correct. The three country summit doesn't have anything to do with the EAS. It usually takes place on the side of the ASEAN + 3 meeting. 

I interpreted the article as suggesting that both Beijing's refusal to hold the usual side meeting at ASEAN, and its stong role in the EAS are simply means by which it hopes to increase its influence in the region. As for China's terms in the EAS, its clout is unquestionably greater in a room that does not include the United States.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sun Bin: You&#8217;re correct. The three country summit doesn&#8217;t have anything to do with the <span class="caps">EAS</span>. It usually takes place on the side of the <span class="caps">ASEAN </span>+ 3 meeting.</p>
<p>I interpreted the article as suggesting that both Beijing&#8217;s refusal to hold the usual side meeting at <span class="caps">ASEAN</span>, and its stong role in the <span class="caps">EAS</span> are simply means by which it hopes to increase its influence in the region. As for China&#8217;s terms in the <span class="caps">EAS</span>, its clout is unquestionably greater in a room that does not include the United States.</p>
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