Bundeskanzlerin Merkel

While the media discuss important matters like how to translate the femnine ending on Bundeskanzerlin Merkel, Bill Rice over at Dawn’s Early Light has a post up on his predictions regarding Germany. Bill always has strikingly good analysis and not only that, his forecasts seem to come true more often than not. However, with regard to Germany, I’d like to add a few qualifiers. Here’s why:

Will Merkel be another Bismarck?

The parallels to be found here are rather in similar circumstances. Bismarck, Chancellor of Prussia, was faced with a strong France to the west and Russia to the east. Germany had long been a weak collection of divided states, something that France intentionally promoted to protect its own power and to use as a barrier against the Russians. Bismarck was faced with powerful neighbors, empires at that, and a weak collection of German states. His genius came in carefully manipulating the German states while keeping his neighbors calm through an extense series of treaties all designed to allow Germany’s peaceful unification and rise as a major European power.

Merkel is also faced with a weak and divided Germany, however in a different sense. The economy has gotten progressively worse and despite the occasional good news which is overhyped in the German media, the situation is not improving. Schröder got the ball rolling on reforms but at the same time created a great deal of social unrest and division. As his reforms continued to alienate voters and his failure to improve Germany’s economy since 1998 reinforced this discontent, his government could no longer use anti-Americanism to distract voters from their dire domestic problems and new elections had to be called.

As Bill noted, Merkel left Germany almost immediately after being sworn, sending a strong message to the world about what her foreign policy will look like. Actually, I rather see this as what it won’t look like. Bill notes,

Visiting NATO headquarters in Brussels was a strong indicator of Ms. Merkel’s desire to strengthen ties with America and reaffirm the Atlantic Alliance as the primary guarantor of Europe. This was deft, because it didn’t require a meeting with an American counterpart.

[...] Her meeting with PM Tony Blair left her with plenty of flexibility in future dealings over EU budgets and policy directions, including the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) and the continental loathed British rebate that make up the major economic stumbling blocks.

[...] However, her visiting France first in the tour showed the French respect and keeps her options open for future negotiations in Europe.

Thus, Merkel must rebalance Germany’s foreign policy, distancing herself somewhat from France and Russia while moving towards England and the United States. The key to her trip wasn’t the individual meetings, but that she’s busy creating more room to maneuver. Don’t read too much into this, German foreign policy will merely move back towards the center and stay there. This trip is about rebalancing German foreign policy so she doesn’t have to spend so much time on it. Expect Merkel’s administration to be concentrated on domestic problems and stay on the fence internationally. Domestic reforms can’t be postponed any longer.

Lastly, Bismarck essentially ran Germany himself despite the existance of the Kaiser and Reichstag and he didn’t hesitate to illegally sideline the Reichstag to get things done or to come into direct conflict with Kaiser Wilhelm over matters of policy, as Bismarck won almost every time. Half of Merkel’s government belongs to the SPD, including ministries key to reform like Labor and Health. The grand coalition came dangerously close to failing and after two months of negotiatons, Germany’s future was agreed upon giving her very little flexibility domestically unlike Bismarck.

The CDU’s goal is to deliver reforms that make concrete differences in the life of everyday Germans while slowly gaining the support of the center elements of the SPD and not alienating them in foreign policy issues. This would eventually allow the CDU to gain a real majority in the next elections, likely partner with the FDP and move on to the more radical reforms necessary. Despite the differences between Bismarck and Merkel, she is faced with a similar task and as Bill wrote, only time will tell how she deals with it.