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Curzon
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Curzon

Date

November 16th, 2005

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Speak Victorian, Think Pagan: Exhibit A

What should we do about China? The BBC sums up the debate this way:

Opinion in Washington is divided. Some Republicans want to pressure China on human rights issues while others – the more business-orientated – want to pursue an active engagement. The dichotomy in US policy has been neatly described as a struggle between “panda huggers” and “dragon slayers”.

The difficulty is not just in framing policy but in finding language to describe it.

“Managing China’s rise” sounds patronising and affords the US an ability to shape China’s destiny which it simply does not have. “Containing China” hankers back to Cold War terminology which is equally unhelpful.

Reconciling these tensions is Mr Bush’s task. He hopes to demonstrate on this trip that despite the problems of Middle East peace or of security in Iraq, and irrespective of the so-called global war on terror, Asia matters.

“Managing China’s rise” sounds patronising and affords the US an ability to shape China’s destiny which it simply does not have. “Containing China” hankers back to Cold War terminology which is equally unhelpful. Reconciling these tensions is Mr Bush’s task. He hopes to demonstrate on this trip that despite the problems of Middle East peace or of security in Iraq, and irrespective of the so-called global war on terror, Asia matters.

Besides the usual BBC silliness (like, Asia actually matters!), the article almost hits the mark. Mr. Bush need not reconcile these two points—he has to consider both. Containing China should be one of the goals of US policy for the next few decades. However, no US politician or policymaker should ever say this. The consequences of such an assertion would damage bilateral relations and help the CCP shore up support with China’s rabid future voters. But like it or not, that should be one of our primary goals in the decades to come.

Comments to this entry

Kushibo
November 16, 2005
12:47 am
China's rabid future voters?

Do you mean the National People's Congress once they shed their rubber-stamp status?

---

I like the point you make, that "no US politician or policymaker should ever say this [about containing China]."
Curzon
November 16, 2005
12:49 am
I mean China's netizens -- i.e. the people to whom Chinese politicians will have to appeal to if and when the country becomes a democracy.

(And thank you. Although I suspect many will disagree.)
Jing
November 16, 2005
1:40 am
Sorry Curzon, but I'll be out of China by December 7th so no chance for a meet up. However, I do recommend that you bring plenty of chapstick with you on your trip and apply it on the plane. I had forgotten how dry Beijing was this time of year and if you are going to be traveling through Northern China at this time of year, it'll do a wonder on your lips. Well at least it did for me since im from Florida.
bill bishop
November 16, 2005
2:52 am
containment is a pointless policy. it will not be effective, no matter whether we articluate it or not

china is far too effective at infusing foeign policy with trade, and so the us will have no supporters among our allies to try to contain china. they are all too busy trading with and investing in china. china has already co-opted them.

what we need to do is continue to engage china on every level. and we should never forget the concept of peaceful evolution. the 4th generation after communism took over is growing up
http://bbb.typepad.com
Mike
November 16, 2005
3:02 am
Personally, I'm a panda slayer. If you can't be bothered to reproduce, then it's off to the taxidermist with you and your fuzzy, adorable kin. Save the bamboo; eat a panda.

And yes, the best strategy for dealing wtih China is to treat them as though they are already our peer and the world is bi/multi-polar again. Rock on, power transition theory.
davesgonechina
November 16, 2005
5:51 am
Are we trying to figure out what we're doing or what we're gonna call what we're doing?

All of it sounds absurdly reductionist. "Panda hugger"? "Dragon slayer"? If that's how we're framing things, we're off to a bad start to begin with.
snow
November 16, 2005
10:42 am
I agree with Curzon on this one, that the US should do all it can behind the scenes to 'contain' or at least keep tabs on what the Chinese are doing and yet not a word should be ever said about it. As far as engaging is concerned, I could see continuing with this, but underneath it all, the US should never trust China. Ever vigilant!
Bill Rice
November 16, 2005
6:47 pm
This indeed is the US approach to contain China. Proof of the US containment policy appears to be:

1) The US has substantially strengthened its ties with Japan, removing diplomatic stumbling blocks, like Marines in Okinawa, to including a more proactive defense posture in the East China Sea.
2) The US has made strong overtures to India to make it a "21st Century world power", and these incentives include military, nuclear and economic benefits.
3) The US has promised the defense of Taiwan overtly by President Bush himself
4) The US has received Singapore and Malaysian consent to help patrol the Malacca Straits, which over 25% of the worlds oil supply moves through (and a huge portion of China's)
5) The US and Australia are coordinating defense policy at a closer level.
6) Look for signs from the South Koreans regarding their relationship with China during the current Bush visit.

China's military buildup (double digit growth for over a decade) is worrisome to all of its Asian neighbors. The US can be the balancing force working in concert with other Asian countries to help promote an emerging China that moves towards democracy rather than away from it.

Time will tell, but I think it is clear the "dragon slayers" are driving the policy.

Kind regards,

Bill Rice
sun bin
November 16, 2005
8:50 pm
Daves is right,
also is Bill Biship and Bill Rice.

You can make 'contain' the second power your policy, and revise your target every other year
1950-85: USSR
1985-2000: Japan
2000-20??: China
then it will be EU, then maybe India, Brazil, or Russia again.

That is, if you assume the world is a zero sum game; and you want to keep yourself very busy and always need a reason to spend more money to defense contractors.
Skippy-san
November 16, 2005
11:16 pm
Containment is the correct word for the policy the US should adopt. Until China shows itself worthy to be a partner to the rest of Asia, it has to be looked at as a big bully on the block. ( Sadly, one that holds a lot of US treasury securities.

That's the real problem that I see is this myth that US economy is too interlocked with China's so any action by the US can come back and bite the US where it hurts.
J. Kende
November 17, 2005
7:47 am
I think a Forward Policy by small steps is the policy we should employ, while speaking of engagement and economic integration at the same time. I think we should mean both, while keeping one much more private than the other. Containment, tilted towards reaching a succesful end game... rather than simply hoping China will head in a positive/favorable direction on it's own if we keep a balance of power in the region (or back off as Barnett would have). We should be quitely picking off Taiwan (doing), Japan (done), ASEAN, Central Asia, Mongolia, and even the Uighers away from China's domains and sphere's of influence. All while actively helping them grow, helping the top of the Party come in for a soft landing, and enticing the Chinese people with fast growth and better relations. We should be both Britain and Russia in this 21st century Great Game, all the while strengthening cooperation with China on our common interests.

Easy enough, no?
Ron Patterson
November 17, 2005
11:10 pm
China as a threat of partner? Perhaps as has been stated before the u.s. should look at how the British Empire 'managed" the rise of the United States, in the 19th century. A situation very similar to the rise of China. The British" suggesting" and encouraging the Monroe Doctrine made the U.S. a partner in an important strategic issue , and of course British investment fueled the U.S. economic rise. Human rights abuses (slavery) were condemned by the British but the British economy benefited from cheap cotton. Just as today the U.S wails about income gaps in China a suppression of information but enjoys the cheap products. At least at this point in history, it appears that Great Britains policy worked, creating a partner and alliance that has stood the test of time.
J.Kende
November 18, 2005
7:27 am
There is something very different about a relatively free society (19th century US) based on principles of participatory, representative governance, divided against itself over the issue of total subjugation of a segment of it's population and a closed, repressive society (20th/21st century China) dedicated to principles of total control of all of their populace. Yes, there are similarities in the rise of the two nations. But the differences in their current nature mean that the consequences of China's rise can lead to the extension of very bad things. It's not just the usual concerns towards the rise of a regional hegemon throwing around it's weight. If we could flip China into becoming a significantly more free and cooperative nation, then helping them with their rise would make much more sense.
Gabriel Mihalache
November 18, 2005
7:51 am
What should we do about China?


Nothing. Mind your own business. If you fear China economically... don't. It makes no sense. If you fear China militarily, well, their track record on that issue is far better than the US's, for example. (The probability of the US invading another country dwarfs that of China doing the same.)

One thing the US could do is to fully recognize Taiwan and offer unequivocal protection to Taiwan and to the straights of Taiwan. How's that for doing something?
snow
November 18, 2005
1:43 pm
'What should we do about China? Nothing. Mind your own business.'

That is ridiculous. If you think for a second that the Chinese are sitting back and minding their own business regarding the US, you're crazy. I think the Chinese are very seriously tracking every move the US does and is doing all it can to put itself in an advantageous position vis-a-vis the Yankees. Why shouldn't the Americans do the same?

I do agree that the US could offer recognition and make a bigger show of unequivocal protection to Taiwan, but would that be the best thing strategically for the US? The Americans think that the status quo is in their best interests, by allowing them to still work with the Chinese while implying protection of Taiwan, whereas such a move as you suggest would imperil relations with the Chinese.

In some ways, I would like to see the US stand firmly behind Taiwan (as I hate commies and don't trust the Chinese government), but strategically I don't think it would be the best thing for US interests to be so out there in that way (better to be covert about it).
Ron Patterson
November 18, 2005
10:54 pm
Dear J.Kende with all due respect. The U.S. of the early 19th century was a land where only wealthy white men could vote. The senate was made up of wealthy white men, who were selected by the legislatures which were made up of wealthy white men. The U.S. government supported and even encouraged slavery and with its invasion of mexico and seizing of mexican lands seemed to be expanding the reach of the slaver. Bad things could have happened. Systems change! Thinking changes! Yes! helping them with their rising wealth and power,making them a partner not a competitor.
Gabriel Mihalache What! China's invasion of Tibet attempted invasion of Taiwan its shelling ofTaiwan soil for twenty years, battles wuth Russia and India, sending troops to fight in korea , Sending 400,000 advisors to Vietnam to assist in that little incident, A mini war with Vietnam, seizing of Mongolian lands and expanding the borders of the Xingyang province at the expense of it's neighbors. Oh yeah a big proportion of its military poised to invade Taiwan. It easily matches the U.S. military,s record of aggression
Sorry for long post. Of course we can not 'manage' China's rise, but we can manage our respose to it's growing strength, part of that management whould be a military that is prepared to challenge them and keep a balance in the world, and suppport positive developments in their internal affairs.