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Chirol
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Chirol

Date

November 8th, 2005

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Belarus Watch

I’ve been actively watching Belarus since the color revolutions and take great interest in this:

EU Threatens Belarus With Sanctions

European Union foreign ministers have threatened to freeze bank accounts and deny travel rights for Belarus’ ruling political elite if President Alexander Lukashenko does not allow next year’s presidential election to be free and fair, Associated Press reported. “In the event of failure to uphold international standards, the draft conclusions make it clear that measures such as asset freezes or visa bans could be taken against those responsible,”Â? said British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who chaired the EU meeting on Monday.

The draft was later adopted by ministers from the 25 EU nations, stating their “readiness to take further appropriate restrictive measures”Â? against individuals responsible for election abuses.Belarussian election officials last week refused to register opposition presidential candidate Zyanon Paznyak, saying his 10 years of living in self-imposed exile in Poland disqualified him.

So they are finally taking a tough line? Considering this is not a potentially violent situation and there is no risk of reprisal nor of losing anything by the sanctions (economically etc), sactions are quite safe. They can afford to take a hard line, please Washington, gain a little moral high ground and help to get the final stain of authoritarianism out of Europe. Good job Brussels!

Comments to this entry

Dan
November 8, 2005
10:05 pm
What they would lose is driving Belarus closer to Russia. While Lukashenko was very closer to Yeltsin, he is on frostier terms with Putin. Brussels has to worry about giving White Russia to Moscow.
Curzon
November 8, 2005
10:14 pm
I just hope you're right...
davesgonechina
November 8, 2005
11:16 pm
rumor has it Russia and Belarus are thinking about reuniting... Lukashenko has rebuffed Putin's proposals before, but ever since Condi's remarks I think he's reconsidered.

Of course, if they do, the questions I have are: what will Putin do with Lukashenko, and how will he spin it to NATO and the West?
Adam
November 9, 2005
6:26 am
Europe's actual power to have any influence over Belarus is debatable. And for the most part, all of the media talk about what they are going to do and how they are going to do something about Lukashenka doesn't seem to have done anything other than strengthen Lukashenka's position inside of Belarus.

I have been writing about Belarus for years now as well as living here and to my view, all pro European noise from the inside seems to be connected with the Anatoly Lebedko and his UCPB party, a Russian political group whose constituency is supposed to be ethnic poles that are living in Belarus. However, Lebedko lost at the unifying opposition party elections to Alexander Milenkovich and what is more, Milenkovich has stated publicly that there is no hope of beating Lukashenka.

Every week I see new news about how Europe is going to do this and Europe is going to do that, everybody here has heard these things. But as the results have been nothing but talk and also because Belarus, unlike Poland and the other CIS countries has no particular financial debt with Europe, all this talk has no teeth. Lukeshenka said himself in a speech a few days ago:

"Nobody has given us a kopek. We are not owing anything to anybody, and now we can calmly look into the eyes of the Europeans, Americans and Russians,"Â?

And please do not think that this is not something that Belarussian, after 15 years of neglect and poverty, do not feel this sort of statment as being somnething to be proud of.

The European press really needs to understand that every time they say things like these, if there is no real, physical and elemental change, if there is no proof that what they are offering is better or at least would not come with strings of debt and economic enslavement along with it, Belarusians are simply going to agree with their president and vote for him for a third term.
s is debatable.
Chirol
November 9, 2005
9:13 pm
Adam: Thank's for your inside info. You're absolutely right that Europe will not have too much leverage. I did fail to mention that. I was concentrating on their taking a stand and how the situation, makes it rather easy too, though it's nevertheless high time. But you're absolutely right that the aforementioned sanctions are likely to have little effect. Do you think they'd actually increase support for Luka through a nationalistic response by the public?
Adam
November 10, 2005
6:54 pm
I don't know if any new sanctions or political actions of any kind will have any specific effect in and of themselves, but for sure Lukashenka will use any failures or weaknesses to his own benefit. The US Laid some harsh trade sanctions against Belarus in 2004 after the referendum election, but Belarus in general just shook its head at them. And literally, publicly and politically people simply asked the US: why? Do you really need to create more pain for people here? Do they really need to suffer more?

But as far as trying to break into Belarusian consciousness is concerned goes in general, you run into two problems and both of them are sort of self perpetuating. The first is Lukashenka and his iron fisted hold on Belarus and its media. Alexander Milinkevich explained it really well actually; you can't get on TV, if you speak to an independent newspaper, it gets shut down, if you work over the internet, they arrest you on the charge of speaking against the government, an illegal act in Belarus, and then come and confiscate your computers. And then Lukashenka smiles at you from the evening news every day or in the toady state press and tells you that he understands there are opposition parties, and that people are free to go to them, and if they do, he only hopes that they know what they are doing. (This refers to both the press and the citizenry, of course. )

But before you start shaking your head, you have to know that Belarus understands what is going on, they really do, and not only do they know, to be frank, rather than being filled with rage at their leader, I believe that they are kind of impressed with how Lukashenka goes about his business. Specifically they are impressed with the mans stamina and ability to keep that iron fist clenched. A friend of mine once pointed out to me that Belarus has always has a Tzar, an ultimate leader. They had their revolution 150 years after the French and America's had theirs, but staged it on completely different grounds. In both cases royalty was evicted, but in the case of the Russians, the reason for it was for the good of all and not just for those rich enough to benefit from the king's removal. So, if you catch my drift, the mind think is that they were poor before, they are poor now, they will probably be poor in the future; why should they deal with someone they don't know and who doesn't understand them?

And also, because they are not as dumb as Europeans must think they are, you must understand that Belarus knows propaganda and salesmanship when they hear it. And they definitely don't like phonies or carpetbaggers.

Thanks for asking Chirol. I hope I didn't make you wait too long for the answer.
Adam
The BEINGHAD Times
http://bhtimes.blogspot.com/
Ioan
March 16, 2006
8:30 pm
Belarussians are offered to vote on-line at the Central Election Committee website http://belarus2006.info/Index.html However, as you may see, all the votes are going to Mr. Lukashenko no matter who are you trying to vote for.