Loose Ends in Kosovo: Part II

Note: This is the second and final part on a series discussing the future of Kosovo. Part I is here and the introduction is also republished below

The United Nationals formally (and finally) announced the beginning of final status talks on Kosovo. Kosovo, along with the so-called Republic of Serbia and Montenegro remain unresolved leftovers from the balkan wars in the 1990s. Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia gained their independence from the former state of Yugoslavia while Serbia and Montenegro remained loosely tied together along with a region claimed by Serbia, although ethnically Albanian, known as Kosovo.

Current Status of Kosovo: 1999 to 2005

Until now, the United Nations has essentially put the cart before the horse, requiring Kosovo to have demostrated good governance and stability in order to move into final status talks. Yet, nothing of the sort has happened and Kosovo has remained in a kind of legal limbo for the past six years.

Part of what has led to this sudden move towards settlement is that the UN’s review of the situation, from two years ago, is finally done and thus things can move on. Additionally, with Iraq, Afghanistan and the War on Terror, the US can hardly be bothered to worry about Balkan leftovers. Similarly, the European Union has been undergoing political turmoil and uncertainty due, among other things to the failed constitutional referendums and security wise, they haven’t progressed much on defense policy integration, another barrier to decisive action in Kosovo. Yet, at the end of the day, none of the above are more important than the fact that the status quo cannot be maintained. Six years of being stuck in limbo has taken Kosovo nowhere and it’s now or never.

An Uncertain Future: 2006 – ????

A recent recent report on Kosovo dated Oct. 7th, details the current situation there, why the political process should move forward, and the challenges it awaits. At 23 pages, it’s a short and interesting read for anyone wishing to know more (click here for the report in other languages).

There will not be any good moment for addressing Kosovo’s future status. It will continue to be a highly sensitive political issue. Nevertheless, an overall assessment leads to the conclusion that the time has come to commence this process. The political process, which is now underway, must continue. Based on a comprehensive strategy, it has provided Kosovo with a political perspective. Kosovo having moved from stagnation to expectation, stagnation cannot again be allowed to take hold.

There’s no shortages of challenges to creating an independent and halfway stable Kosovo. Its Serbs and Albanians have never been integrated nor really lived peacefully together in the past 500 years. It’s unlikely for that to change, yet it will be one of the central issues in creating a stable Kosovo.

Also keep in mind, that final status talks, means status talks, they aren’t necessarily the final phase before independence. However, it will be important to make clear that full independence will indeed be the final outcome. Serbia needs to understand that no amount of protest or negotiation will change that and the Kosovars need to have a very clear and a very strong incentive to get their act together. That being said, Serbia will be left in a very precarious position and will need to be offered very serious carrots, such as the EU’s recent agreement to open negotiations for a stabilization and association agreement (a precursor to EU membership talks), but only within the framework of Kosovo’s independence. It should also be noted that Montenegro, connected these days only by a metaphorical thread to Serbia, will be going ahead with an independence referendum in 2006, though this has met with resistance from the EU.

Serbia’s increased marginilization will make it a potentially dangerous actor in Balkan affairs and thus it’s of the utmost importance that Serbs in Kosovo be protected and Serbia itself be included as much as possible in the process and perhaps given a face saving way out. Yet, while the UN’s bureaucratic gears are moving and the future of the Balkans looks a little brighter, a previous UNMIK report reminds us that:

In light of the many difficult issues yet to be resolved, the Mission is of the view that continued substantial international engagement in Kosovo will be necessary for the foreseeable future.