Entry details

Chirol
Author

Chirol

Date

November 3rd, 2005

Tags

, ,

Comments

3 Comments so far.
Add yours.

Enter Russia

My post yesterday on Iran noted that:

…the last diplomatic option left is through Russia, who has enough credibility in the East and West to force Iran to quit its uranium enrichment program and allow the entire process to be overseen by the Russians. Yet, would such a bargain only lead to another North Korea a few years down the line?

And today we see:

Russia Plans Joint Nuclear Fuel Production With Iran

Russia is prepared to host a nuclear fuel production joint venture with Iran, a plan that could help break a months-long deadlock in Tehran’s talks with France, Britain and Germany, diplomats said on Wednesday, the Reuters news agency reports.

…Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and others have been trying to find what several diplomats called a “face-saving solution”Â? that would allow the EU-Iran talks to resume and avoid worsening the standoff.

So the hardliners are essentially taking over in Iran, the nuclear crisis seems to be at its worst and Russia steps in to save the day? Iran narrowly escapes the UNSC and will eventually develop nukes anyway North Korean style, Russia touts itself on both sides as the savior and gets to advance 3 spaces towards regaining its world power status. Both get what they want and the US and EU are left out in the cold, devoid of enough ammo to use against Iran. Hmm. Who doesn’t think has long been in the works?

Meanwhile, Regime Change in Iran asserts that Iran acquired a few nuclear warheads from the USSR during its breakup through Kazakhstan. Questionable, but a very interesting article nevertheless.

Comments to this entry

ElamBend
November 3, 2005
1:03 pm
This just shows that Russia still sees the world through a Cold War Prism. In their eyes the U.S. is in the ME, so they too must be there through their new client state Iran. Unfortunately the Iranians to seem to buy into the idea of being anyone's client. They want regional hegemony, if not more.
These new guys think big, they want to re-start the 'Islamic revolution,' with an end of spreading Persian power accross the region.
I feel sorry for the regular Iranians for it looks like they are about to be taken on a long, dark ride. I think the out come will be a sort of Cold War in the ME. I also can't believe that once Iran announces its nuclear armament that the KSA will stand idly by. They must also arm. It would be the only rational move for them, short of having us move our bases back in.
Kirk H. Sowell
November 4, 2005
8:29 pm
I think you have to look at the Russia-Iran relationship through two lenses: money and geography. In terms of the former, Iran pays good money for the technology it gets, and so given the indemic corruption of individuals working for the state, it shouldn't be surprising that this affects state policy as well.

Geographically, Iran borders the Caspian Sea and could potentially causes problems for Russia with its Muslim populations in the Caucasus, so it is easy to see why Russia would want to stay on Tehren's good side. But what makes this especially perplexing is the friendly relationship that exists between Iran and al-Qaeda. While there is room to dispute the nature of that relationship, it is clear that for years al-Qaeda members (including Abu Musab Zarqawi and some of the 9/11 hijackers) have had transit rights through Iran. Many others have refuge there, although Iran claims to have them under arrest. With their popular stronghold in south Afghanistan and west Pakistan, Iran is the geographic key to getting around.

I guess if Russian soldiers can sell their weapons to Chechnyan militias for the extra cash, there is no reason why the state can't do the same with Iran.
Chirol
November 4, 2005
8:35 pm
On another note, while shopping at a Persian store today, I spoke with the owner for awhile who was a colonel in the Army and fought against Iraq. He coincidentally told me the same story, i.e. that Iran had gotten its hands on a few nukes from the Soviets during the breakup. Odd coincidence. Does anyone else know more about this?