What is your take on what the Caucasus area will look like 5, 10 & 20 years out?

This is a difficult question as there hasn’t been a constant enough trajectory to be able to forecast where this region is going. Like Chirol said what happens in Chechnya depends entirely on what is going on in Moscow. I’d say we will only see a change in Chechnya when we see a change in policy, meaning a change in regime, in Moscow. Either we get a hardliner at Putin who dumps even more treasure into Chechnya, or we get someone who no longer wants to pay and pulls out like Chechnya 1.0.

Georgia is in heaps of trouble right now I think. They are barely afloat and there is lots of intrigue in the upper echelons. People turning up dead and switching sides and whatnot. I have no idea where they will be in a year, never mind 20.

Armenia’s fate truly impinges on trade relations with Turkey, which impinges on political relations with Armenia, which suck. Turkish succession to the EU is good news for the Armenians I think, because there will be lots more pressure to do something for the Armenians.

Azerbaijan is in a dangerous place now too. Political upheaval, oil wealth, relations with Iran… all kinds of juicy ingredients in this ready-made bomb to make for some very interesting times in the future.

But like I say, no momentum means no discernable trajectory means difficult to forecast.

In short, I don’t see too much reason to think that the region is going to be much different in 5 or 10 years from now.

First let’s differentiate between the Russian caucasus and the three states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. In terms of the former three, I’d give Armenia the worst forecast and predict they’ll be in about the same place. Azerbaijan is grappling with an increase in strategic importance and oil wealth, however its by no means remotely even nor has much development sprung from that. Despite current political upheaval, even a Georgia style revolution is unlikely to bring any long term good governance to Azerbaijan as the three color revolution countries have sadly shown.

Georgia’s rose revolution and increased support by the US has definitely not harmed it, however internal conflicts such as with S. Ossetia as well as tensions with Russia over terrorism in the Pansaki gorge are serious obstacles to stability. While no bright future is in sight, options have at least opened up. The question with Georgia, in my mind, has more to do with capable leaders.

As for the Russian portions of the Caucasus, I’d say the future is pretty grim. No feasible solution can even be envisioned. If they’re lucky, they’ll end up chaotic and poor like their neighbors to the south and slowly inch their way out. I’d actually pay attention to what happens within Russia for hints as to what will happen with its Caucasus possessions.

Nathan, you’re perhaps better qualified on this one, any ideas?