Entry details

Chirol
Author

Chirol

Date

November 1st, 2005

Tags

, , ,

Comments

5 Comments so far.
Add yours.

Anarchy in the Caucasus

Recently, 92Y Blog alerted us about a four part series on Russia’s ongoing battle in the Caucasus. Though what little news on the region which makes it into the western media tends to concentrate on Chechnya, the insurgency has essentially spread to become an entire “Caucasus front” no longer limited to one area.

A Breeding Ground of Radicalism in Southern Russia

The town of Nalchik in the Caucasus region has long been a vacation resort. Since the middle of October, however, it has hosted a war. But it’s not alone in the region. The town is just the latest addition to a long list of hot spots in the region including Grozny, Beslan and Dagestan. It has become a breeding ground of terror.

The city of Nalchik in the Caucasus has been a resort city since 1928. It boasts 80 degree Celsius (176 degree Fahrenheit) hot springs, fresh mountain air, boulevards perfect for afternoon strolls, and outdoor restaurants that serve tender, grilled lamb. The snow-covered double peak of Mt. Elbrus, the tallest mountain in Europe, presents a dramatic and majestic backdrop to the city.

Russians, of course, have long known about Nalchik, the capital of the Republic of Kabardino-Balkariya. And for the past two weeks, so too has the rest of the world. But for all the wrong reasons. The walls of buildings along Lenin Boulevard are now perforated by missile fire. Staff at the city’s three hospitals tend to the wounded, and the morgue in the Dubki neighborhood is filled to capacity.


The Second Chechnyan War has been fought since October 1999 and shows no signs of letting up and instead has increasingly become a magnet for international terrorists using it as another front of global jihad and a perfect place to to gain experience and training before moving on to other fights and/or terrorist operations. Every year sees another “graduating class” of terrorists whose first hand experience makes not only them dangerous, but those they will go on to train. The longer the Caucasian war goes on, the less of a chance there is that a sustainable peace can be worked out. Similar to the West Bank and Gaza, the conflict has spilled over into the region and drawn in international support and like them, even if serious negotiations were to take place with secular nationalists, the hardliners and Islamists would continue to wage their way thus rendering any real end to the conflict impossible.

Jamestown’s Chechnya Weekly is out with more information. Radio Free Europe also has more questions than answers about Nalchik and Intellibriefs has some history on the area. As usual, perhaps the best resource for more is Global Security while Lebanon’s Daily Star has some analysis on why Russia is Europe’s “sick man.”

Comments to this entry

Chief Wiggum
November 1, 2005
5:03 pm
What is your take on what the Caucasus area will look like 5, 10 & 20 years out?
Chirol
November 1, 2005
7:44 pm
Fabulous question.

In short, I don't see too much reason to think that the region is going to be much different in 5 or 10 years from now.

First let's differentiate between the Russian caucasus and the three states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. In terms of the former three, I'd give Armenia the worst forecast and predict they'll be in about the same place. Azerbaijan is grappling with an increase in strategic importance and oil wealth, however its by no means remotely even nor has much development sprung from that. Despite current political upheaval, even a Georgia style revolution is unlikely to bring any long term good governance to Azerbaijan as the three color revolution countries have sadly shown.

Georgia's rose revolution and increased support by the US has definitely not harmed it, however internal conflicts such as with S. Ossetia as well as tensions with Russia over terrorism in the Pansaki gorge are serious obstacles to stability. While no bright future is in sight, options have at least opened up. The question with Georgia, in my mind, has more to do with capable leaders.

As for the Russian portions of the Caucasus, I'd say the future is pretty grim. No feasible solution can even be envisioned. If they're lucky, they'll end up chaotic and poor like their neighbors to the south and slowly inch their way out. I'd actually pay attention to what happens within Russia for hints as to what will happen with its Caucasus possessions.

Nathan, you're perhaps better qualified on this one, any ideas?
Mike
November 2, 2005
6:01 am
Where's that picture from? I'd love a larger version of it, not often one sees still-standing structures with their centers blown out.
Chirol
November 2, 2005
8:20 am
Mike: It's from the wonders of google. That was the only size they had!
Younghusband
November 2, 2005
11:37 am
bq. What is your take on what the Caucasus area will look like 5, 10 & 20 years out?

This is a difficult question as there hasn't been a constant enough trajectory to be able to forecast where this region is going. Like Chirol said what happens in Chechnya depends entirely on what is going on in Moscow. I'd say we will only see a change in Chechnya when we see a change in policy, meaning a change in regime, in Moscow. Either we get a hardliner at Putin who dumps even more treasure into Chechnya, or we get someone who no longer wants to pay and pulls out like Chechnya 1.0.

Georgia is in heaps of trouble right now I think. They are barely afloat and there is lots of intrigue in the upper echelons. People turning up dead and switching sides and whatnot. I have no idea where they will be in a year, never mind 20.

Armenia's fate truly impinges on trade relations with Turkey, which impinges on political relations with Armenia, which suck. Turkish succession to the EU is good news for the Armenians I think, because there will be lots more pressure to do something for the Armenians.

Azerbaijan is in a dangerous place now too. Political upheaval, oil wealth, relations with Iran... all kinds of juicy ingredients in this ready-made bomb to make for some very interesting times in the future.

But like I say, no momentum means no discernable trajectory means difficult to forecast.