Spreading the conflict 2.0

A spate of bombings and killings in the North Caucasus have spurred fears that the conflict in Chechnya may be spreading across the region. Over the last 24 hours there have been three explosions in Ingushetia, one explosion in North Ossetia and a police officer killed in Dagestan (where 8 security troops were killed earlier this week) reports the BBC.

Are these attacks simply the consequences of tensions in the region? Or a deliberate campaign by the Chechen insurgency like Shamil Basayev’s failed attempt to take over Dagestan in 1999?

Basayev’s Dagestan foray, while supposedly an attempt to forge a transcaucasian Islamic state, was more likely aimed at securing oil pipeline real estate. These latest attacks, if they were deliberately coordinated, look more like a 4GW attack on Russian authorities reminiscent of the Moscow apartment bombings of 1999.

If the attacks were coordinated we’ll know soon enough. Basayev, who denied responsibility in the apartment blasts, has claimed Beslan and other attacks as his own. Recently he claimed his mujahideen conducted a successful special operation in Moscow which resulted in a city-wide power outage, causing major disruptions. If he does claim these new bombings, it may be evidence that he is changing his strategy, shying away from major military attacks to lower intensity 4G attacks.

Since this news is just breaking, I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Edited for clarity