Spreading the conflict 2.0

Chechnya's neighbourhood A spate of bombings and killings in the North Caucasus have spurred fears that the conflict in Chechnya may be spreading across the region. Over the last 24 hours there have been three explosions in Ingushetia, one explosion in North Ossetia and a police officer killed in Dagestan (where 8 security troops were killed earlier this week) “reports the BBC”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4253268.stm.

Are these attacks simply the consequences of tensions in the region? Or a deliberate campaign by the Chechen insurgency like “Shamil Basayev’s”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shamil_Basayev failed attempt to take over Dagestan in 1999?

Basayev’s Dagestan foray, while supposedly an attempt to forge a transcaucasian Islamic state, was more likely aimed at securing oil pipeline real estate. These latest attacks, if they were deliberately coordinated, look more like a “4GW”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Generation_War attack on Russian authorities reminiscent of the “Moscow apartment bombings of 1999″:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Apartment_Bombings.

If the attacks were coordinated we’ll know soon enough. Basayev, who denied responsibility in the apartment blasts, has claimed Beslan and other attacks as his own. Recently “he claimed his mujahideen conducted a successful special operation in Moscow”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4588039.stm which resulted in a city-wide power outage, causing major disruptions. If he does claim these new bombings, it may be evidence that he is changing his strategy, shying away from major military attacks to lower intensity 4G attacks.

Since this news is just breaking, I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

_Edited for clarity_

About Younghusband

Sir Francis Edward Younghusband (1863-1942) was a British explorer, army officer, military-political officer, and foreign correspondent born in India who led expeditions into Manchuria, Kashgar, and Tibet. He three times tried and failed to scale Mt. Everest and journeyed from China to India, crossing the Gobi desert and the Mustagh Pass (alt. c.19,000 ft/5,791 m) of the Karakoram mountain range in modern day Pakistan. Convinced of Russian designs on British interests in India, Younghusband proactively engaged in the nineteenth century spying and conflict over Central Asia between the British and the Russians known as the Great Game. "Younghusband" is a Canadian who has spent a number of years bouncing back and forth between his home country and Japan. Fluent in Japanese and English with experience in numerous other languages from Spanish to Georgian, Younghusband has travelled throughout Asia. He graduated with an MA from the War Studies Department at the Royal Military College of Canada, where he focussed on the Japanese oil industry and energy security issues. He has recently returned to Canada from Japan, and is working in the technology sector.
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10 Responses to Spreading the conflict 2.0

  1. Important topic YH. The Transcaucasian-Southern Russian region is quite capable of societal disintegration if a tipping point is reached.

  2. Duran says:

    you think it’s cool to invent your own acronyms?

    “4g attacks” does actually have a meaning outside your head?

  3. J.Kende says:

    Haven’t heard of 4th gen warfare eh Duran?

  4. Curzon says:

    4G is a generic way to say fourth generation — fourth generation war is a somewhat technical term, and perhaps my dear comrade could have provided “a handy wikipedia link”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Generation_War to make things easier to understand for those of us not studying for advanced degrees in war studies ;)

  5. Younghusband says:

    I put in the [W] and a link to 4GW for those new to the party.

    In semi-related news, “Mike Tyson will be heading to Chechnya”:http://mosnews.com/news/2005/09/15/tysonchechnya.shtml. Via “Nathan”:http://del.icio.us/nathanhamm#2005-09-16.

  6. J. Kende says:

    “In semi-related news, Mike Tyson will be heading to Chechnya.”

    Talk about 4GW. It’s just no fair. I feel terrible for the Chechens now.

  7. Duran says:

    So no you added W in the end of it – 4G and 4GW are not the same to be honest.

  8. J. Kende says:

    For people familiar with this field of study, we still know what is meant when the W is dropped. It’s called being fluent. You should try it.

  9. Younghusband says:

    bq. So no you added W in the end of it ““ 4G and 4GW are not the same to be honest.

    “no” and “now” are not the same either. But I understood you anyways. Would you like me to add a W for you?

    In related Caucasus news, an FSB officer who alledgedly exposed evidence that pointed to government complicity in the 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow is “to remain in jail”:http://mosnews.com/news/2005/09/16/trepashkininprison.shtml ; Kabardino-Balkaria’s president “handed in his resignation with no explanation”:http://mosnews.com/news/2005/09/16/kabardaresign.shtml ; and “Chechen militants killed 6 pro-Moscow police and wounded 9″:http://mosnews.com/news/2005/09/17/killedpolice.shtml. Chechen sources also announced the death of Aslan Maskhadov’s ex-bodyguard “Emir” Akhmad Avtorkhanov was apparently killed last week.

  10. maskull says:

    Fourth Generation War & (?!) Fifth Generation War are covered in a post here last July. “5GW” With links to offsite material.

    http://www.cominganarchy.com/2005/07/19/5gw/

    Heir Rabbit laughingly countered: ” What you guys are saying about 5GW really sounds more like a W 4.1.”