Yes, he has been saying that he’ll step down next September for a while. But consider some points:

- Koizumi does not want anything to disrupt the passage of the postal privatization bills. That is why he has postponed realigning his cabinet and cut short his trip to the UN. If he starts talking about staying on even longer, critics calling him a “dictator worse than Hitler” will grow shriller and could force concessions on the bills. In short, calls from Kanzaki of the Komeito, Kitashiro of the Keizai Doyukai, and a bunch of others have simply come at the wrong time.

- But that doesn’t mean they’ll go away. Business leaders, foreign investors, the LDP, the Komeito, and — most importantly — the public all love Koizumi. The voices calling for him to stay on will only get louder.

- After the postal bills pass, Koizumi will want to keep momentum going for his other policies. But without him, there is no one else in the LDP good enough, at least for Koizumi, to take over where he left off. As much as you like Shinzo Abe, Curzon, he’s too old school (though I have to admit I know too little about his domestic leanings). I believe Koizumi realizes this, so unless he can find someone suitable based on his criteria, he may find himself left with no choice but to stay on.

I’m sure Koizumi is very tired from his amazingly busy schedule. But he has the chance to go from a PM Yoshida-sized legacy to one that could actually rival his hero Oda Nobunaga, and he’d be a fool not to take it. $5 says he will.

>Michael Taylor
Last night on TV, there were 3-4 politiicans from each of the LDP and JDP debating on what will happen after Koizumi. The LDP response was basically, Aso Taro (Minister of Internal Affairs) or Fukuda Yasuo (former Secretary General of LDP), before handing it over to Abe Shinzo. Some even commented that Abe may directly succeed Koizumi. Good choice, considering that Abe is popular even among JDP supporters. But then again, Koizumi may be convinced to go yet for another term.

IJ — Japan’s patience is being tried with the UN, not the US, which backs Japan for a seat on the UNSC.

Saru — yeah, but that’s just trivia. It is the largest percentage, which is what matters. The number of seats is irrelevant, since there were more seats before 1994.

Not only does the coalition victory represent the largest parlimentary majority in history, it is very, very close to the largest majority the LDP has ever held in the Lower House.

In the 1960 Lower House election, the LDP came away with 296 seats, the same number as they did in Sunday’s race. However, the LH at the time only consisted of 467 seats, which in percentage terms beats the current majority by around 1 per cent.

The party’s largest numerical victory was in 1986, when they won a total of 300 out of 512 Lower House seats, but this only gave them a 59% majority.

Cheers,
Saru

News today that Japan’s patience is being tried. The UN’s World Summit is being held this week. Member states are said to have postponed until December a decision on the proposals to enlarge the UN Security Council. “Because of the failure to agree on the Security Council, Japan, which had hoped to become a permanent member, is threatening to cut its UN contributions in retaliation.”

Incidentally, it was timely that an interim report on financial controls in the oil-for-food episode was released just before UN reforms are considered. The final report on the Iraq scandal will be issued later.

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