Comments on: Unwelcome News

By: Registan.net » Denials Abound

Registan.net » Denials Abound — Wed, 07 Sep 2005 17:14:50 +0000

[...] Of course, there are still those for whom these denials will not be enough. Let me just add a cautionary note though. I don’t want to entirely dismiss it, but the Russian press is not exactly known for its commitment to distinguish between well-founded facts and mere rumor and speculation. And ultimately, the Western reports were based on the Russian media. Are those reports worth mentioning? Sure. But they probably aren’t anything to get even the least bit worried by. [...]

By: IJ

IJ — Tue, 06 Sep 2005 20:56:31 +0000

How should Turkmenistan’s sales of gas be spent? Countries with a large income from natural resources have a dilemma. For heavily populated countries, such as in parts of the Middle East, there is growing pressure on governments to provide better public services in the here and now. For lightly populated countries, the money can instead be ploughed back into the country’s energy sector, or into a fund set aside for the people’s future; for example, Norway’s fund is now said to be worth Ã�â��Ã�Â£100 billion.

But, no matter how it is spent, the income pushes up the country’s exchange rate often making other exports uncompetitive. A diversified economy in a big energy exporting country is unlikely.

This will surely be a problem for the EU if oil sales are made in euros, rather than US$ as at present.

By: Albert

Albert — Tue, 06 Sep 2005 17:49:51 +0000

BTW… For your information most of the Gas Revenues that the country gets are planned to be spent on a great ski resort in the desert by the wise leader of the country. He was speaking about importing snow and creating an artificial mountain so that the people could enjoy winter sports… (ahem ahem a bit insane wouldn’t you say)

By: Ben Paarmann

Ben Paarmann — Sun, 04 Sep 2005 16:20:34 +0000

[...] Turkmenistan Curzon at Coming Anarchy is disappointed with the seeming US interest in establishing a base in Turkmenistan, which has a regime ‘that makes Uzbekistan look tame’. Saparmurat Nyazov’s madness, which I was able to witness last week, has culminated again: His book Rukhnama was sent to space. The Turkmen TV was reporting about nothing else, making watching it incredibly dull. [...]

By: IJ

IJ — Sun, 04 Sep 2005 09:25:13 +0000

Comments on Iran should bear in mind that Iran is very well ‘connected’ on energy; many countries are relying on deals they’ve signed with the country to secure supplies of energy.

On this theme a post from Registan, ‘India Seeking Central Asian Energy’, notes the desperate need of India to secure energy for the future:

>With its energy requirements skyrocketing, India’s attention is now focused on tapping Iran’s and Turkmenistan’s reserves. According to some estimates, India’s daily oil imports will rise more than three-fold by 2020, from the current level of 1.4 million barrels per day. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is on record as saying; “energy security is second only in our scheme of things to food security.”Ã�?

By: J.Kende

J.Kende — Sun, 04 Sep 2005 07:44:23 +0000

I don’t think it’s a matter of more likely candidates in re Iran. The idea seems to be to encirlce Iran entirely with at the very least non-cooperative border states. We have American troops on two borders, “neutrality” and American basing in the ’stans nearby, and a general warming towards America in the Caucusus. Iran can’t be happy about that, and when it comes time to enforce a blockade or something of the sort, these preparations would be what are required to make that work. Which isn’t to say that is what is actually happening. It’s just that if it is happening, these moves make sense.

By: Nathan

Nathan — Sun, 04 Sep 2005 05:10:38 +0000

If you’re looking for a more likely candidate, look to Azerbaijan. Military cooperation talks with Turkmenistan probably extended no further than getting guarantees on continued overflight rights (potentially from a country across the Caspian?).

By: J.Kende

J.Kende — Sun, 04 Sep 2005 03:21:12 +0000

I was looking at a map of the region for other reasons today and exactly the same thing came to mind.

Seems the effort to encircle Iran continues.

By: Catalin Tilimpea

Catalin Tilimpea — Sun, 04 Sep 2005 00:07:39 +0000

Hey, haven’t you noticed they’ve got a (sizeable) border with Iran? :)

By: IJ

IJ — Sat, 03 Sep 2005 19:22:20 +0000

Attempts to put news in its proper context has been costly for the BBC. Because “proper” is so subjective a word; the BBC say they try to report impartially – unfortunately the Pandora’s box includes national politics, economics and foreign policy in particular.

By: Nathan

Nathan — Sat, 03 Sep 2005 18:43:53 +0000

You’re right, they do. I can also say with some confidence that they’ve gone downhill over the past year. I’m finding Jamestown’s Eurasia Daily Monitor to be far superior because they are much more likely to do what EurasiaNet used to do without fail–put news in proper context.

By: IJ

IJ — Sat, 03 Sep 2005 10:58:21 +0000

In fairness, EurasiaNet publishes some very interesting information.

For example it reports that Turkmenistan’s insistence on neutrality may bring down the Commonwealth of Independent States. Of the recent CIS Summit, EurasiaNet says.

>Turkmenistan, meanwhile, garnered attention by downgrading its formal affiliation with the CIS. Mercurial Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov, who skipped the summit, attributed the move to Ashgabat’s “status of permanent neutrality.” One commentary, published in the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, characterized Turkmenistan’s move as the “beginning of the CIS’s collapse.”

By: Nathan

Nathan — Sat, 03 Sep 2005 01:49:15 +0000

I have very strong doubts about this. I've seen it mentioned a few other places than my blog, and most seem to have missed the context that the meeting took place in. Not that it's necessarily the fault of any bloggers because the media is failing to mention the context. I do expect better of them, but then again, I do also expect that they'll want a story like "US May Base Planes in Turkmenistan." It's got a better ring that Tajikistan or Kazakhstan. Check out this post. I sense that the tone was very different in the talks with Taijikistan. They seem to have been more likely to have been about basing than the Turkmenistan ones. And the Kazakhstan meeting in Washington is worlds warmer than Abizaid's meetings. It also seems worth mentioning that EurasiaNet is wrong about the isolation of Mary (unless they just aren't being clear). Ben Paarmann was just there.