Hope in Burundi?

Despite the usually depressing news from Africa, Burundi has finally overcome its civil war and gotten on its feet. What happens still remains to be seen.

Burundi gets post-war government

Mr Nkurunziza has vowed to engage the FNL rebel group in peace talks
Burundi’s new president, former rebel leader Pierre Nkurunziza, has formed the country’s first government since the end of the 12-year civil war. He gave key posts to members of his Hutu FDD party, and seven out of 20 ministerial posts to women.

On Monday, parliament approved his nomination of a Hutu woman and a Tutsi man as his deputies. The new constitution guarantees a balance of power between Burundi’s Hutu majority and Tutsi minority. These stipulations were agreed as part of five-year peace process designed to end the conflict between Hutu rebels and an army led by the Tutsi minority. In terms of the agreement, the cabinet should comprise 60% Hutu and 40% Tutsi, with at least 30% of posts going to women.

A history of Anarchy:

1962 – Independence
1966 – King deposed by his son
1972 – Aborted Hutu rebellion triggered the flight of hundreds of thousands of Burundians. Civil unrest
1976 – Colonel Jean-Baptiste Bagaza took power in a bloodless coup.
1987 – Major Pierre Buyoya overthrew Col. Bagaza, dissolved opposition parties, suspended constitution
1991 – Buyoya approved constitution that provided for a president, nonethnic government, and parliament.
1996 – government overthrown in a coup led by Buyoya. Civil war continued.
1994 – President Ntaryamira and Rwandan President Juvénal Habyarimana died in plane crash. making the beginning of the Rwandan genocide, exacerbated the violence and unrest in Burundi.

So does Burundi now stand any better of a chance of becoming reasonably stable much less democratic?

According to the CIA World factbook:

The economy is predominantly agricultural with roughly 90% of the population dependent on subsistence agriculture. Economic growth depends on coffee and tea exports, which account for 90% of foreign exchange earnings. The ability to pay for imports, therefore, rests primarily on weather conditions and international coffee and tea prices.

The outgoing president Domitien Ndayizeye also had little good news to share adding that the new government will face serious challenges such as reaching a ceasefire with the FNL as they may demand blanket amnesty for laying down their arms, creating credible instutions, reconciliation among the people themselves, revision of the countries labor codes and the thousands of refugees likely to return. Not easy tasks.

However, Europe announced 200 million Euros of support, Germany’s reopening its embassy there and the Netherlands is ready to explore the possiblity of sending troop to train Burundian soldiers for peacekeeping. Additionally, the Dutch invested millions in the electoral process in 2003 and in March of this year financed a 4.8-million euro project aimed at building police stations, training centers, vehicles and communications equipent for them as well as setting aside 6.5 million euro for humanitarian operations this year. Yet, given Burundi’s dismal history, what should we expect?

The first priority will be disarming or defeating the rebels. In order to secure peace, peacekeepers with rules of engagement that include “kick ass if necessary” will be needed. Short of true disarmament and some form of incorporation, we’ll only see another short period pass until the next coup and more fighting. Burundi is small and we owe it to them, and to Rwanda, to help them get back on their feet.

If the country can be stabilized and the border with the Congo sealed off, they may have a chance. Also, considering how small Burundi is, were the international community to make a concerted and long term effort to help, perhaps Rwanda too as their fortunes seem to be inextricaby linked, there’d be a good chance of finally creating lasting peace which would set an example for the rest of Africa. Considering the many other failures in Africa and elsewhere, we need to start small and work up, and Burundi is a perfect candidate. Otherwise, the cycle of chaos and destruction will continue making the possibility of lasting peace ever harder.