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Chirol
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Chirol

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August 17th, 2005

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Europe’s Sunshine Policy


As I noted earlier, German chancellor Gerhard Schröder is again using the familiar tactic of bashing American foreign policy, offering unrealistic policies of his own and using it to try and gain the upper hand in the upcoming election as he did during the run up to the war in Iraq. As in the last election, Schröder and the SPD are lagging behind in the polls and have little to offer voters except anti-American rhetoric and hollow unrealistic solutions to the world’s problems. Not coincidentally, the same has been happening in South Korea in regards to North Korea.

“This is the part where we disagree on with the United States,”Â? Chung said. “We believe that if North Korea returns to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and subjects itself to safeguards agreements and inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, North Korea should have the rights as an NPT member country.”Â?

Schröder had this to say about Iran:

“My answer to that is: “ËœDear friends in Europe and America, let’s develop a strong negotiating position towards Iran, but take the military option off the table’.”Â?

However, how Schröder planned on developing that strong negotiating position remains to be seen. If France and Germany haven’t been able to accomplish much so far, how is their position going to get any stronger? The only real strength the Europeans could bring to bear is economic. Around 36% of Iran’s imports are from Europe. However, ultimately, the only thing that could prevent Iran’s acquiring nuclear technology is military force. The kicker is that Schröder has used military force in the past and sent German troops to Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan and with no UN mandate in Kosovo. So is he saying ethnic cleansing is more important than nuclear proliferation? In that case perhaps North Korea’s massive starvation, along similar lines, should warrant military action right? Nope.

South Korea is in the same position, years of Sunshine Policy and appeasement have produced only a more belligerent and now nuclear armed North Korea. If history is a guide to the present, then Europe’s sunshine policy will only produce the exact same result.

Jed Babbin notes with regard to Iran:

Opponents of air strikes and other military action say that if we attack Iran, it will unleash every terrorist it employs against us, and more Americans will die. But the choice they pose, between inaction and terrorism is a false one. The choice is between action now, and nuclear terrorism later. It is false to say that the ends never justify the means.

I wouldn’t necessarily say nuclear terrorism from Iran is inevitable though North Korea seems to have a pretty solid policy of illicit arms deals. As with North Korea, this is a problem that is only getting worse and whose window of opportunity to be solved is quickly closing. We musn’t let the Europeans undermine peace and stability through a ridiculous and unrealistic Sunshine Policy which will produce a nuclear armed Iran.

Comments to this entry

Kenneth
August 17, 2005
11:30 pm
The problem with this, of course, is that Iran is "China's ally":http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GF04Ad07.html. I, personally, would not want to risk an all out war with China, as we would probably lose for a number of reasons.
Curzon
August 18, 2005
5:47 am
Allow me to basically repeat my comment from the previous post--

"My answer to that is: "ËœDear friends in Europe and America, let's develop a strong negotiating position towards Iran, but take the military option off the table'."Â?

Shroeder -- THERE ARE NO WORDS TO DESCRIBE YOUR IDIOCY. LOSE THIS ELECTION ALREADY, PLEASE!
atlanticus
August 18, 2005
8:48 am
Interesting link and comparision.

>>However, how Schröder planned on developing that strong negotiating position remains to be seen.>If France and Germany haven't been able to accomplish much so far, how is their position going to get any stronger?>However, ultimately, the only thing that could prevent Iran's acquiring nuclear technology is military force
atlanticus
August 18, 2005
2:49 pm
Ooops, somehow my comments to the quotes from your post got lost.

I meant to say that
a) Schroeder weakened the West's negotiating position by ruling out military force and splitting the West.
b) The EU can't do much, because only the US can offer Iran the grand bargain that would stop the nuclear program.
c) Air strikes would only postpone the development of nukes for a couple of years, while increasing domestic support for an unpopular regime. Since military regime change is not an option either right now due to the lack of military ressources and the Iraq problems, the best option seems to be tough negotiations and hope for peaceful regime change.

Don't get too alarmistic! According to the NIE Iran still needs ten years... More explanations for my thesis here:
http://atlanticreview.org/archives/109-War-against-Iran-Populism-against-the-US.html

I have linked to your blog, by the way.
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Rules Are Made to be Broken
August 21, 2005
1:35 pm
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