Curzon of Coming Anarchy responds to Chirol’s analysis of the need for a “line in the sand”.

Is Taiwan a renegade province, independent country or a US protectorate?… Japan renounced its sovereignty over Taiwan, but did not turn over that sovereignty to either the PRC in Beijing or the ROC in Taiwan. Neither the PRC nor the

ron, you come to the conclusion that we should use the military option. You know what, we have. The United Nations forces and the Republic of Korea did try to wrest the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea from its leadership and you know what happened? They shot at us! Killed a whole bunch of us, too. Hundreds of thousands, maybe millions.

Sure, Kim Jong-il and his cadres are an evil lot, but the country is full of people who could stand together and remove them, but they don’t. Should we risk the lives of people who already suffered (during the first Korean War) to save people who won’t save themselves?

You know which North Koreans I feel sorry for? I feel sorry for the ones who do try to escape but find themselves hiding out in China. China, our wonderful economic partner, who likes to round up North Koreans and send them back to the DPRK for certain torture, imprisonment, and possibly death. Not just the “repatriated” but their families, too.

If we really want to do something, put pressure on China to stop the round-ups. Put pressure on them to let the North Koreans go to third countries. Set up facilities around the world to take them (South Korea is pretty much the only one right now). Bleed North Korea dry.

That’s one problem with nukes. “Turn the country into a parking lot” is the only thing their good for, and that stifles creativity.

Backs to Beijing: Boycott the 2008 Olympics as long as the PRC is repatriating North Korean refugees.

What are the chances we could get China and Russia onboard to depose him (preferably the Chinese, with Russian & American support)? Have the North Koreans liberated by the Chinese, and let the Chinese (and other Asian nations) work alongside South Korea to rebuild the country.

These don’t seem very likely, but are they possible enough to be considered possible routes?”

That is ideal. None of us know how to get it done though, or we would be standing on a stage accepting the moral world’s version of a geostrategic nobel prize right about now.

The seeming strategy of the Bush administration of slowly encircling, enticing, and ultimately cooking the frog… somehow… is mindnumbingly risky. But if it works, and it would have to be because of all of what the rest of us don’t know, then it is Bush that will be standing on that stage. He would deserve it big time for pulling this off, while it looks to the rest of us as if the clock is just ticking with not enough happening.

The third choice of nuke heavy pre-emption that Curzon and Maskull see as the only relatively effective option at this point would turn the entire table of the world up into the air, with us having no clue what would come next. It’s a very scary option that really is a last resort. The question Curzon is pushing (rightfully) is whether we have reached the point where it’s time for the last resort.

Aside from North Korea, I do like the strategy Maskull brings up for dealing with Syria and Iran if the current encircle and pressure policy doesn’t start to pay higher dividends. The Kurds have been nothing but friendly to us for a good while now. They want the kind of liberal institutions we are seeking in the region and they will be more than happy to safeguard regional energy flows for all parties concerned. It feels like it’s just about time for another one of Bush’s trademark surprise… but if something of the sort doesn’t happen in the Middle East w/ Syria or Iran pretty soon I’d say we start giving a bit less carrot and start brandishing the Kurdish stick.

These children conform to the MacDonald Triad (Wikipedia):

“Cruelty to animals. Most children can be cruel to animals, such as pulling the legs off of spiders, but future serial killers often kill larger animals, like dogs and cats, and frequently for their solitary enjoyment rather than to impress peers.” N. Korea. K. J. Il in his solitary splendor. Nuke him big. Time’s awasting.

“Firestarting, invariably just for the thrill of destroying things.” Syria personified. Invade. Seize the northern 7 provinces. Turn this land over to the Kurds. Resettle the prior inhabitants in southern Syria, France, Germany & possibly – Spain. Turkey could help with this.

“Bedwetting beyond the age when children normally grow out of such behaviour.” Iran. Invade. Take the northermost territory, bordering on the Caspian. Create an Independent Kurdistan, reaching from the Caspian to the Mediterranean.

Build a pipeline for Russian oil, from the Caspian to the Mediterranean. Let the Kurds handle it, since it will be entirely on Kurdish territory. The Kurdish Pipeline could also take all the Iraqi oil.

Give Saudi Arabia a heads up, with a package guarantee.

Also, with my comments on Clinton, I didn’t mean to completely absolve him of all blame, but to rather even the playing field by countering the often heard argument that NK broke its agreement. Would an attack/invasion have been better during his term anyway? Naturally.

Eddie: I think getting the Asians on board would be pretty difficult. However, the ideal solution is that this is a job “asian boys should be doing for themselves”

It would also need to be a very multilateral effort as I don’t imagine China’s neighbors would enjoying seeing it flex its military might like that. Besides, convincing NK’s neighbors of the urgency of the situation and that they’ll be the ones taking most of the casualities would be pretty difficult.

As bad as the father was, he was still a revolutionary and had some kind of twisted moral justification for his actions. His son is nothing but a spoiled baby who became the dictator of his own gigantic playground, and he will do absolutely everything in his power to hold onto that, regardless of how many people he kills.

Those numbers are for Seoul alone. Although few doubt the US would win a conflict, the causality figures would be enormous. From a political standpoint, it is far easier to let people starve to death under an oppressive regime than to condemn an ally’s civilians to death, let alone members of your own military.

There are also worse-case fears about North Korean bioweapons, but that’s a subject for another day.

What other options exist besides a preemptive war and waiting for the inevitable nuclear holocaust?

How credible is the option of a more conservative government in South Korea pursuing a policy towards unification by clandestinely pushing NK generals/elites to overthrow Kim?

What are the chances we could get China and Russia onboard to depose him (preferably the Chinese, with Russian & American support)? Have the North Koreans liberated by the Chinese, and let the Chinese (and other Asian nations) work alongside South Korea to rebuild the country.

These don’t seem very likely, but are they possible enough to be considered possible routes?

But I will tell you I find any analysis of 1994’s tense situation highly suspect if it includes mention of air raid drills in Seoul: at the time monthly air raid drills were the norm: 2:00 p.m. the 15th of every month. You could set your watch by them, literally.

(They are now less regular, about tri-monthly.)

But tourist journalists with no capacity for deep analysis of Korean issues came to Seoul in time for the war, and this was a major piece of their evidence of the situation in South Korea. That they completely screwed the pooch on this very obvious piece of info makes me wonder what other bit of analysis they got wrong.