Castro’s Successor

Fidel Castro is the oldest leader of any country in the world and will turn 79 this August. Policy planners in Washington have decided to wait out his death, expecting his regime to collapse when he dies.

Perhaps. But Castro is planning ahead. He has long declared that his younger brother Raúl should asume power in the event that Fidel falls ill or dies. If this actually happens it will make Cuba one of a very few ipso facto monarchical communist states (along with North Korea). Raul, who has held a number of high positions since the late 1950s, including the Communist Party and the armed forces, is in a perfect position to take power as the current head of the armed forced.

Who is this guy? He was at his brother’s side during the invasion of Cuba and is currently the Armed Forces Minister, putting him in control of much of the Cuban military. He is widely regarded as more hardline than his brother, and was a compatriot of ‘Che’ Guevara, and was involved in the original Granma expedition. He has called for the US to normalize relations with Cuba, engages in diplomacy such as his recent visit to Vietnam, Russia, and his work with the Chinese military.

Question: if the head of the military takes power, how will the regime collapse or change? Will it be natural? Or do we take him out? Only time will tell.