Twas Never in the Cards

In this post, prominent political science professor and Foreign Affairs contributor Joseph Nye notes that Chirac’s vision of a Europe that would balance American power was never in the cards. While this comes as a shock to those following French rhetoric such as Chirac’s ridiculous attempts to garner support for a “Oiu” by saying that a “non” vote would benefit the US, most of this was taken too seriously by outsiders and not seen as the populist rhetoric it was. Nye cites an important and often overlooked reason why Europe won’t be a threat to the US any time soon: Military expenditures.

European societies would never spend 3-4 percent of GDP on their military to make that happen. Sunday’s vote merely makes that clear. Now we have to hope that common sense will prevail and Europe will return to the incremental path towards progress that has given it unprecedented soft power in the past.

As many have noted, the French and Dutch have voted against capitalism and for more social welfare programs. Though Benjamin Franklin would probably say they deserve neither, Europeans have indeed chosen security over liberty.

According to the CIA World factbook for 2003, the following countries spent the following percentages of their GDP’s on the military:

France: 2.6%
Germany: 1.5%
Spain: 1.2%
Italy: 1.9%
Portugal: 2.3%
Poland: 1.71%
Sweden: 2.1%
England: 2.4%

Given the widespread unemployment, defunct social welfare systems and stagnant economies, Europe as a whole is ill prepared to go head to head with the United States. Germany and France especially are hemorrhaging money to pay for the social benefits so many people receive and can barely fill their treasury much less spend money on a military they don’t want to use. In Germany, not even ~4.50 EUR for a gallon of gas, 4.20 EUR for cigarettesor even the 16% Value Added Tax (VAT or sales tax) has been able to bring in enough money.

Even if most European states had the extra revenue to spend on their militaries the voters would rather see that in the form of either increased benefits or tax cuts. Neither the politicians nor the people are ready to buy the military they’d need, nor would it be possible anyway, as the US is already ahead by leaps and bounds technologically as well as in terms of strategic reach. There are 156 countries in the world with U.S. troops and 63 countries with U.S. military bases and troops.

Not even the most hardcore French nationalists would want to invest that kind of money into the French military. Europe will continue to contribute token forces to international deployments around the world however it is extremely unlikely they will develop any real hard power in the near future. Thus, they will continue to rely on their ability to attract others soft power but always lack credibility on the international stage due to their lack of military might and refusal to use force.

The EU as an economic union with the necessary political integration necessary (read: ease of movement for people, information, goods etc) is a fine idea. Europe as a United States of Europe won’t fly. Perhaps NAFTA could send a few people to Brussels to help get them back on track.