According to the BakuToday:
US to conduct exit polls in November parliamentary elections
The United States is ready to do its best to achieve the conduct of free and fair elections in Azerbaijan, US Ambassador Reno Harnish told journalists, according to media reports.Harnish said the Azerbaijani government has already appealed to the United States with regard to holding exit polls during the parliamentary elections due in November 2005.
This comes as quite a surprise and it’s timing is suspect as the Baku-Tbilsi-Ceyhan pipeline just opened. Connection or coincidence? Considering the BTC is already up and running, there’s no need to build confidence in regional stability as without such, the pipeline never would have gotten this far. Why would Aliyev allow this? Going back on his word is possible but won’t do much for his reputation. Will the US allow Aliyev to steal the election? Highly unlikely as it’d be far too damaging to our image in the wake of successful US supported revolutions in Georgia, the Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Has Aliyev been convinced to step down or retire?
The CIA World Factbook says:
...president elected by popular vote to a five-year term; election last held 15 October 2003 (next to be held NA October 2008); prime minister and first deputy prime ministers appointed by the president and confirmed by the National Assembly election results: Ilham ALIYEV elected president; percent of vote – Ilham ALIYEV 76.8%, Isa GAMBAR 14%
Should he allow free parliamentary elections he’ll also be expected to do such in 2008 and thus what is going through Aliyev’s head at the moment is a mystery. Given stepped up US involvement in the region due to the BTC and Caspian Guard, what goes on behind the scenes is anyone’s guess. I invite readers to add their knowledge and analysis in the comments section as at the moment, there seems to be precious little information on this subject.
For further information, previous election results can be found here and for general information on election schedules for the entire world, see ElectionGuide. Blogrel also has good coverage of possible peace settlements between Armenia and Azerbaijan which surely play a role.
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COMMENTS / 2 COMMENTS
Curzon added these pithy words on 31 May 05 at 12:47 amWill the US allow Aliyev to steal the election? Highly unlikely as it’d be far too damaging to our image in the wake of successful US supported revolutions in Georgia, the Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.
Quite the opposite—we now have political capital to spend!
Alfred Russel Wallace added these pithy words on 31 May 05 at 11:32 amLet’s not be too pesssimistic….. October 2008 is a long way away. Perhaps Aliyev can see there ought to be life for ex-presidents beyond politics… Surely one of the best things that could happen to most of the world would be to have leaders step down and alow an orderly transition…..
Lets hope that’s what’s on his mind
