Aqtau-BTC?

NOTE: This should have been posted a few days ago when it was first announced, but due to downtime it couldn’t be. ComingAnarchy is back and on top of things.

Kazakhstan to export oil through US-backed Caspian pipeline

Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that his oil-rich former Soviet republic in Central Asia would pump large amounts of its crude through a four-billion-dollar US-backed pipeline to be inaugurated Wednesday.

“For us this route will be one of the main ways to supply world markets,” Nazarbayev said at ceremony where he signed a raft of bilateral agreements with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev.

I’m starting to consider adding an new category entitled “Marginalization of Russia.” Jamestown.org (via Registan) notes that the Russians are worried about using the BTC as a pretext for more US military involvement in the region:

Russia State Duma deputies have launched a concerted effort to rally opposition to the American military’s rising interest in, and possible future deployments around, the Caspian region. Specifically, some deputies fear that the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline might be used as a pretext for stepping up the U.S. military presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Seems the Duma members need to read ComingAnarchy more often. Perhaps they’ve not heard of the Caspian Guard which is already underway as well as US military support for Kazakhstan. Russia is being pushed aside and it knows it. Instead of fighting the inevitable, they should realize that cooperating with the US could ensure them a greater role regionally than trying in vain to work against America.

Russia is in need of a drastic new policy taking into account the current geopolitical reality on the ground and giving up a lot of their former sphere of influence. The country is still in the process of falling apart and hasn’t yet found its footing to begin anew. With power politics heating up in Asia between China, India and the US, the United States doesn’t need to work too hard to marginalize Russia, China will take care of that. We should instead aim to keep Russia off her feet but not push her too far into the corner. Afterall, a soft landing and a healthy political relationship could one day make Russia a useful ally.

UPDATE: Eurasia.net seems to agree.