The Future of Bosnia

When Yugoslavia broke up, its new political borders mostly reflected its ethnic and internal borders. However, Bosnia remained a problem. As my previous article noted, it seems that some form of nationalism is almost inevitable and also that artificial states often break up before joining the Core. Thus, we must first ask, is Bosnia an artificial state or a natural one? Then if it is, it seems destined to break apart and if it isn’t, then what does it’s future hold?

Is Bosnia and Herzegovina an artificial state?

Before getting into the history of present day Bosnia, it must first be clear that although the current country is called “Bosnia and Herzegovina” the two names were previously geographical ones and not political. Thus, there is often confusion surrounding these. In this article, I will refer to the present day country as simply “Bosnia.”

Let’s look at some quick facts:

Ethnic Makeup: Serb 37.1%, Bosniak 48%, Croat 14.3%
Religion: Muslim 40%, Orthodox 31%, Roman Catholic 15%
GDP - per capita: $6,100 (2003 est.)
Unemployment rate: 40%

Since the end of the 12th century, Bosnia has been a state close to what we know today. Not long after, it was annexed by the Ottomans in 1463 and they lost it in 1878 to Austria-Hungary. Thus, while the poltical lines of Bosnia have been about the same for over 800 years, they haven’t been an independent state since 1463. Therefore, while the lines have been there, there is no real legacy of independence but in all fairness many other states in the region and elsewhere share a similar history. Thus, we shall conclude that Bosnia is indeed a natural albeit multi-ethnic and multi-religious state.

What does its future hold?

After the Dayton Accords were signed in on December 14th 1995, the ethnic divide was institutionalized into two republics, the Serbian Republic (green) and the Croat Federation (purple).

In addition, a system of government was created that also took ethnic problems into account. The Presidency rotates between three members (Bosniak, Serb, Croat), each elected for a 4-year term. The three members of the Presidency are elected directly by the people (Federation votes for the Bosniak/Croat and the Serb Republic for the Serb). If this sounds familiar you’ll recall that in Lebanon a similar thing was done whereby the three highest offices are reserved for members of specific religious groups: the President must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the National Assembly must be a Shia Muslim. Thus, in order to keep the peace, the divisions that had caused so much bloodshed during the civil war in Bosnia were in essence, legalized.

Thus, it is easy to forsee great problems arising from the institutionalization of ethnic divides. While this could cause a great deal of problems, a solution is at hand. Throughout history, Bosnia has been a mixed area and always ruled by a strong empire (Ottomans, Austria-Hungary, later Yugoslavia) thereby keeping ethnic problems to a minimum. With the breakup of Yugoslavia, age old problems had to be dealt with at the state level. Gone are the days of empire-brought stability. Should Bosnia breakdown, it would threaten the stability of the entire region and with it their chances to enter the EU.

What Bosnia needs is to be brought under the strict rule of another empire, though this time in a different form: the European Union. The EU has consistently been able to wield enough carrots to force Eastern Europeans to bury the hatchet, agree on borders, treat minorties nicely (see Hungary/Romania) and so forth. All of what Bosnia needs. After the war came IFOR followed by SFOR and the current EUFOR. This concerted and continuous effort is an excellent example of a Sysadmin force doing its job well and working to integrate a country into globalization as well as a modern and fair replacement for the previous imperial rule necessary to keep Bosnia stable.

Thomas Barnett measures the effectiveness of an intervention based on the influx of connectivity it provides to a country. Thus far, Bosnia has been a success. Major reconstruction has been underway for the past decade. Some refugees have returned, internet cafes are popping up, Bosnians have returned to their normal lives and the entire region is now relatively stable (outside of Kosovo). In fact, the EU will soon be deciding on Bosnia’s negotiations with the EU regarding eventual entry.

The success of the Balkans and their integration into Europe all hinges on the creation of a stable (and democratic) Bosnia.

Anyone interested in seeing pictures taken during my time in the Foreign Service in Bosnia is welcome to click below for them.

Mostar 2002: What was previously a hotel of some sort on the river

Sarajevo 2002: One tower has been fully repaired, the other was under construction.

Sarajevo 2002: A mini Burger King that served not only fast food, but bosnian food and turkish coffee

Sarajevo 2002 and yes those are bullet holes everywhere

Sarajevo 2002: Just another half destroyed building. There were dozens of worse ones