Demographics is Destiny

Keeping in line with my obligation as a paying subscriber not to republish Stratfor’s reports, I’m excerpting the “good bits” from Stratfor’s recent 2,000 article on Russia’s future. Great stuff here—subscribe already! Here’s how George Friedman and the gang see the current Russo-American great game. Abridged

Geopolitics is not a sentimental game, and the United States is not a sentimental country. Using a variety of mechanisms, such as NATO expansion, the United States first spread its influence into Eastern Europe, then into the former Soviet Union itself, in the Baltics. Washington has increased its influence in the Caucasus via its relationship with Georgia.The Americans moved into Central Asia—first, through the development of energy resources there; then, as a side effect of Sept. 11, through the deployment of U.S. troops and intelligence services throughout the region.

The United States has sought to prevent, under any circumstances, the re-emergence of Russia as a regional hegemon and potential global challenger. Clinton and George W. Bush have sought to systematically increase American influence in what the Russians call their “near abroad” while at the same time allowing the natural process of economic dysfunction to continue. More precisely, they have allowed Russia’s weaknesses to create vacuums into which American power could move.

The breakpoint came in Ukraine. Washington took advantage of pro-Western forces there to create a situation in which it, rather than Moscow, was the most influential foreign force in Kiev—including raising pointed discussions about whether to include Ukraine in NATO. Ukraine lies on Russia’s southern frontier; if it becomes a NATO country, Russia becomes indefensible. This, coupled with growing U.S. power in Central Asia, threatens Russia’s position in the Caucasus. The situation quickly becomes hopeless for Moscow.

Thus far, the US has played all its cards right in the post-Cold War disintegration of the Soviet Union. I think the rise of a proto-Russian empire is no all but impossible. But how hard do we push to cut the Russians off? Because as Mark Safranski recently said to me, “If Russia falls apart it is mostly going to be a sea of inchoate bandit statelets and petty dictatorships. We don’t need that kind of headache.”

The Russian decline and the U.S. exploitation of the situation have taken us to the breakpoint. If Ukraine is lost to Moscow, if Georgia becomes the dominant power in the Caucasus, if events in Kyrgyzstan are extended to the rest of Central Asia—all of which are very easy to imagine—it will be difficult to imagine the survival of the Russian Federation. We will see a second devolution in which parts of the Federation peel off. Russia, as we know it today, will be finished.

If Russia is going to make an attempt to recover, now is the time when it will have to happen. Russia will never have a vibrant economy. In the long run, centralized command economies don’t work. But neither does capitalism in Russia. A centralized economy can do remarkable things in the short run, and Russia is particularly noted for short-term, unbalanced spurts—sometimes with the government using terror as a tool, sometimes not.

Germany went from a collapsed military in 1932 to Great Power status in five or six years. Economic authoritarianism, coupled with a pre-existing skilled officer class, transformed Germany’s strategic position. It is not wise, therefore, to assume that Russia cannot recover significant military force if it has the will to do so. It might not become a superpower, but Great Power status—even with an impoverished population—is not beyond its capabilities. We have seen Russia achieve this in the past. It therefore makes sense that the United States has been consolidating and extending its position in the former Soviet Union during the past few months. Russia can recover, but only if given time. The United States, having no desire to see Russia recover, doesn’t intend to give it time. Washington intends to present Moscow with a reality that is so unfavorable that it cannot be reversed. Russia is close to that situation right now. Will the Russians grab what might be a last chance, or are they just too tired to care?

Russia has serious problems. It’s population today is 144 million. While Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Mexico and India are growing rapidly, Russia is expected to decline from anywhere between 77 and 126 million by 2050. A country with such dire demographics is unlikely to survive. So I think Stratfor is right—either their collapse will continue to dangerous level, or they will do something drastic. Either way, it’s not a bright future for central eurasia.