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Chirol
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Chirol

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May 5th, 2005

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Breakdown of Isms III

Here is the third installment which accounts for a country getting stuck in the cycle and repeating it until it finally makes it to stability and democracy. Dan has an interesting and more complicated version at tdaxp dealing with specifics like economics and politics. It’s worth a look.

The third graph simplifies the entire process, better allows for going backwards and adds the disconnect->collapse->stability connections by recognizing the difference between the final collapse before democracy and ones within the cycle.
Here’s version 3.0

Comments to this entry

mark safranski
May 5, 2005
11:12 pm
Don't mean to nitpick but the " &" does not work in terms of logic unless you are positing it is always Communism *AND* Nationalism. Are you ? Or just sometimes ?

I think your previous overlap or Younghusband's neat fade version caught the reality more accurately.
Chirol
May 5, 2005
11:22 pm
I appreciate the nitpicking, the previous version perhaps demostrated the overlap better. I didn't mean to imply that it was always communism and nationalism in this one. I was just rearranging things. Good point!
Chirol
May 5, 2005
11:26 pm
Took the & out.
Dan
May 5, 2005
11:33 pm
Thanks for the series!

What do you mean by war? Are you considering only conventional wars or do you include fourth generation conflicts, like the Islamist insurgency in Uzbekistan or melded insurgencies like in Chechnya?
mark safranski
May 6, 2005
12:23 am
Yeah, I like this series too - intellectual gestation post by post
Mutantfrog
May 6, 2005
1:59 am
I don't know if having a flowchart with democracy at the end of every branch is realistic. It's certainly nice, but perhaps a little bit too dreamy. A little too 'Francis Fukuyama' for me.
tdaxp
May 6, 2005
2:55 am
From Communism to War and Peace

Chirol has written a new post-Communism diagram at Coming Anarchy. I responded to his old diagram with one focusing on politics and economics. Here's one focusing on connectivity, nationalism, and authoritarianism







As with the last pos...
Chirol
May 6, 2005
9:48 am
Mutantfrog: Remember that democracy at the end could be many different versions as we've discussed elsewhere on CA. It could look like the US, Europe, Israel, SK, Japan and so on. The basis of the nodes is more on substance. The label is just a broad term encompassing possibilities categorized under it such as collapse which could come in different forms.
tdaxp
May 6, 2005
2:10 pm
Economic, Political, and Legal Reforms After 1989

"I think you need to break down the chart...," by Chirol, tdaxp, 6 May 2005, http://tdaxp.blogspirit.com/archive/2005/05/05/from_communism_to_war_and_peace.html.

Chirol made some helpful points on my first and second post-Fall of Communism charts,...
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Russia’s Search for Identity
May 6, 2005
3:51 pm
[...] ’s Search for Identity While I’ve been talking a lot about the breakdown of communism lately and the fragments of the USSR, I haven&#821 [...]
Dusty
May 7, 2005
10:47 pm
Chirol, I developed a circular model in a simplistic form to address some issues relating to monitoring where the ball might drop. I need more boxes to track sub-details of some components.

Many of the factors inherent in an ism can appear within the context of another -ism. These are harder to track if you are tracking the -isms. For instance, China, while still holding up the communist system, is inserting free markets normally inherent in democracy. To quell unrest it had been appealing to Nationalism to make some kind of transition and now is using Ethnicism as the appeal to Nationalism is losing its affect.

And while Communism, as we traditionally know it, may be dead, it doesn't mean a variant can't be ingeniously be used to, such that Communism is at the top of the diagram with no arrows ever pointing to it. Venezuela comes to mind there, though I doubt the word communism in true, past form will ever be used as the bald-faced appeal.

I'd appreciate you looking at it. Sorry though, I am having trouble with uploading a diagram.
Chirol
May 8, 2005
9:04 am
Let me know when you upload it.
Dusty
May 8, 2005
4:17 pm
Chirol, I have a problem uploading as a link in the post. It has somthing to do with a tilde in the address. I have put it in the drop down menu as "G-Diagram" on the right sidebar as a pop-up window. Instructions in the post.
Chirol
May 8, 2005
4:56 pm
Doesn't pop up for me under Opera or Firefox.
Dusty
May 8, 2005
7:42 pm
Weird that it doesn't pop-up for you, Chirol. I know there are odd instances when it does not. (I find that problem sometimes with the CIA Factbook, too.) On-click must be more susceptable to that than a radio "Go" button.

I use Firefox 1.0 and IE6 and it works on both. If you aren't, too, fatigued by my website problems, try it again. If it doesn't work click again on the "Not Ready Yet" line and then back on the G-Diagram line without closing the pop-up window (the Script Function just changes what is in the window, it won't give mulitple windows.

One last thing, do you use a proxy or something else which is a pop-up blocker? The PU works for me with Proxomitron but I have it set to allow pop-up after the page load, but not for loading and exiting.
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Democracy is Overrated
May 12, 2005
5:44 am
[...] quo; CA 2.0 Columns fixed! Related Bad Democracies, Good DictatorshipsBreakdown of Ism [...]
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[...] tion movements. Karimov can no longer provide the stability needed to run Uzbekistan. On the chart here, Uzbekistan is at the bottom under authoritarianism and st [...]
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Decision Time at the UN
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ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Where Do We Go From Here?
July 19, 2005
6:16 pm
[...] Interestingly enough, I also discussed an option similar to the fourth plan here posing the theory that synthetic states are bound to collapse eventually and thus should be peacefully broken up before they violent collapse. So what would be the best option for Bosnia? Looking at past ethnically (and/or religiously) divided and artificial states may provide some insight. If we take a few examples, we find that the transition often looks similar to that of communism to democracy as I plotted here. Let’s take Rome, the Mongols, the Ottomans, USSR and Yugoslavia. Graphically, their transition could be represented as such: [...]
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September 30, 2005
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