Nuke Pyongyang, Reloaded

So I wake up this morning to see that North Korea may carry out a nuclear test next month, that they may already have nuke (OK, old news), but what’s worse, they once again shot a missile in Japan’s direction across the Japan Sea. (I’ll refrain from profanity, but I’ll let this fellow yank speak for me.)

Back in December, when this blog saw 600 visitors per month (which we now see in half a day) I said that we should preemptively strike North Korea with several nuclear warheads without warning. Of course I can admit that the argument looks nuts—until you consider what we’re facing instead. Our North Korea policy rests on the blind faith in the hope that North Korea doesn’t go totally nuts. This isn’t the Soviet Union, China, or France. Considering the threat we face with an insane rogue nation with just enough nukes to destroy the world as we know it, preemptive strikes are not a consideration we should ignore.

The argument hinges on this assumption: war with North Korea—who threaten violence at every turn, and who have shown their capacity for deception and vile conduct at every opportunity—is inevitable. Even if you don’t agree, note this Newsweek story that argues that Kim Jong Il and his thugs will fall from power guns blazing. This isn’t Gorbachev, understanding his place in history, or Deng Xiaoping looking to the long-term future of his country. This is not a rational geopolitical leader. Kim and his ilk will die in office or be killed trying to preserve their power because they know what will happen when their authoritarian regime crumbles. There is no asylum in Panama. There is no reform or transfer of power to the Korean National Congress. The result is a war, no matter how you try and shape it. The question becomes: do we let them pick the time and place, or do we make war on our terms? Hence, I believe we should strike first.

There are enormous risks to such a strike, no doubt. But consider what we risk if North Korea makes the first move. Seoul has a concentrated urban population of over 10 million, greater Tokyo 33 million. Stop and think about what will happen if the DPRK launch even one missile. (Talk about how we can’t afford not to research and develop missile defense) . Millions dead, the world economy damaged like nothing we’ve seen since WWII, enemies worldwide will be emboldened, and a perfect opportunity for China to make its move on whatever it pleases.

And it’s not just the populations of our allies. There are moral considerations in North Korea as well (and even if you don’t buy this on geopolitical grounds, it should certainly be made to the public). A strike on North Korea will probably kill tens, (maybe even hundreds of) thousands. But millions have starved in the DPRK since Clinton decided not to invade North Korea in 1994. The worse decision is, and has been, to do nothing.

Finally, look at the broader, worldwide view. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the JFK administration was just as concerned about Berlin as they were about Cuba. Likewise, this is aimed just as much at Iran as it is designed to deal with the tailbone of the Cold War. War with North Korea is inevitable—a greater Middle Eastern war is possible, even probable, if Iran gets nukes. I think the EU3 deal to stop Iran’s nuclear program is a disaster. Premptively striking North Korea scare the pants off the Mullahs, because it would nullify their nuclear deterent. The underlying goal should be that Iran’s leaders think something along the lines of, “Dear Allah, those Americans really are that crazy. . .“ That might be all we can do to stop them from actually getting nukes—the belief that we will strike them before they finish development. (I also think this would be more effective than striking Iran.)

The scary thing about this is that we don’t even know if North Korea has nukes. At least we don’t know for sure. And we don’t know how many they have if they do. They’ve never tested a nuke. But considering the aforementioned risks, let’s give ourselves the benefit of the doubt.

What follows a multi-missile attack that targets all their facilities? The primary goal should be to eviscerate their offensive capability, make sure generals in North Korea know that this isn’t armageddon, and turn the regime fratricidal. Attempted coups have taken place in the past, or have at least advanced past the planning phase. Work out a deal with some generals to convince them that we want to work with them in a post-KJI North Korea and demand transparency. Tough? Of course. Just ask yourself what the alternative is.