The Caspian Guard

According to the US State Department, Georgia is a transit route for terrorists. The first thing that comes to mind is that this was issued through State, not higher ups and therefore passes without much mention. At the same time, Russia and Georgia seem to have agreed about closing Russian bases in Georgia.

In Azerbaijan, Rumsfeld’s visit is still raising questions. Originally, there was much fanfare over the visit and numerous mentions that there will be no US bases in Azerbaijan. But now, it seems to have boiled down to a question of semantics. A so-called Caspian Guard is being established and will have a command post (not base) in Azerbaijan .

“An integral part of the scheme will be state-of-the-art radar installations in Baku to monitor Caspian air and sea traffic. A major goal of the initiative is to protect the $3.6 billion 1,097 mile-long Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, opening next month, from terrorist attack. The U.S. government intends to spend $100 million to form “Caspian Guard” brigades over the next decade.”

Confirming the Caspian Guard’s existence is General James L. Jones, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe who discussed it recently before congress.

Put that together with the US’s new military aid to Kazakhstan. The aid is earmarked for the nascent Kazakh navy in order to better patrol the Caspian, thus strengthening regional maritime security and paving the way for more foreign investment and increased output.

As if this weren’t enough, the recent GUAM meeting in Moldova projected the same sentiments. Interesting quotes include:

The GUAM leaders also discussed Ukraine’s proposal over potential military cooperation. “It is possible that joint [GUAM] armed forces might be involved in the process of resolving conflicts,”Â? reads an information note issued by the Georgian President’s press office; this note, however, does not elaborate on any further details of this potential military cooperation.

“It is possible to think about a realization of the peacekeeping potential of GUAM member countries. For example, the creation of a joint military force for participation in [peacekeeping] operations under the aegis of the UN or OSCE,”Â? Victor Yushchenko, the Ukrainian President said.

…

“There are four hot spots [Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestria and Nagorno-Karabakh] in our region. And Ukraine sets giving a boost to resolving at least one of these conflicts as its goal,”Â? Yushchenko said.

Post-revolution Ukraine is becoming surprisingly active in regional security and together with Georgia seems to be spearheading a push for democracy and increased regional security. After all, they’ve decided that Belarus is their next target.

What should we make of all of this? Watch for an increased US troop presence in Georgia in the name of the War on Terror. Expect to at least see more high profile pressure coming from the US, EU and GUAM in solving the aforementioned regional conflicts. GUAM seems to also be hinting at enlargement. Will we see any moves in the direction of Turkmenistan by the US?

As the US continues to keep Russia off balance and establish long term positions in the Caspian, the Great Game continues in full force.