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Curzon
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Curzon

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April 26th, 2005

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A Future of Uigher Terrorism?

I was rereading Robert D. Kaplan’s “The Man Who Would Be Khan” about Seargent Wilhelm and the good work he is doing in Mongolia (sorry, no link—subscribers can read the article at TheAtlantic.com) and found this juicy tidbit on the future of terrorism in Central Asia:

[Mongol’s first priority is] securing borders not against a conventional military threat from China (such security would be impossible) but against illegal border incursions, criminal activities to finance terrorism, and transnational terrorism itself, particularly by the Uighur separatists of western China. Aided by the Chechens and the broad militant Islamic network, Uighur extremists represent the future of terrorism in Central Asia.

Woah, that’s quite a statement. Central Asia hands, do you think he’s correct?

Here’s how I see it: having been to Xinjiang (albeit just for ten days), I saw that some Uighur’s are very discontent and the Han Chinese are very racist. There are tensions, perhaps similar to what Soviet Central Asia was like in the 1970s. But when it comes down to it, independence is largely a fascination of the Uigher elite and inteligensia, not the average people. The area is developing slowly but surely. I saw more economic activity in Urumqi than in Almaty, Kazakhstan (and the later is often called the most kickin’ place in former Soviet Central Asia). I feel a romantic attachment to Uighur independence and autonomy, and a desire—based in national self-interest—to screw China at every chance I get. But I’d name Ferghana Islamists and Taliban remnants first and put Uighurs as a distant third at best if I was asked to name the future of terrorism in Central Asia. Am I wrong?

ALSO: this via Saru, the East Turkestan Information Center.

Comments to this entry

Nathan
April 26, 2005
6:02 pm
At the time he wrote that, it did look that way. There are a fair number of Uighurs involved in terrorist organizations in Central Asia, mostly with the IMU. For a while, there was some discussion as to whether or not the IMU had become the IMT (Islamic Movement of Turkestan) after fusing with an Uighur terrorist group whose name I can't remember.

If there is to be a rise in Uighur terrorism, one can definitely point to totalitarianism and lack of opportunity as the cause. While you point out that there is enormous economic activity in East Turkestan, again I ask, how does the village look? The area is quickly becoming Han, and Han receive the benefits of the growth with a "Uighurs need not apply" sign hanging up all over the place. (A friend of mine on the way back from living in the area was told right after she arrived that she was to no longer speak to Uighurs - she was there, in the eyes of her overseers, to benefit the Han.) It'd be one thing if the growth was raising all boats at an equal rate...
mark safranski
April 26, 2005
7:04 pm
Given the enormous pro-terror madrassa network in the Pushtun/Wazirstan borderland of Pakistan, indicting the poor Uighurs seems faintly ridiculous. They are a long,long way behind the Pushtuns in terms of ideology, financing and organization.

Which is not to say the Chinese won't someday provoke a widespread revolt but so far the animosity is more potential than active
praktike
April 26, 2005
7:42 pm
why would canucksville benefit from screwing China?
Nathan
April 26, 2005
8:27 pm
So tempted to make joke about Curzon's geographical location, yet cannot resort to making a cheapshot against his profession.

Alas!
Curzon
April 26, 2005
8:39 pm
Praktike -- Sir Francis is Canadian, I am a US citizen (we met in Japan). Nathan is referring to the fact that I am, at least for the next two weeks, based on the east coast and located near Nathan's neighborhood (indeed, we even "ran into each other":http://www.cominganarchy.com/2005/03/27/weekend-in-philly-1-of-3-bloggers-of-the-northeast-unite/ recently). For more, see the Contributors page.
Dave
April 26, 2005
9:25 pm
I've lived in Urumqi 2+ years and I find the suggestion hysterical. Uighur activities based outside Xinjiang, sure, but as far as the population here they lack resources and more importantly the will. While most Uighur people here strongly resent the Chinese, they've taken on a form of submission to authority that you see in the Han Chinese themselves. And as far them attacking Mongolia, that's absolutely ridiculous they have no beef with them. Funneling Chechen/Islamist supplies and money through Mongolia? I'd be looking at Kazakhstan and Pakistan for that - there aren't really any routes to take on the Xinjiang/Mongolia border.
Mutantfrog
April 26, 2005
9:30 pm
There may be Uyghur terrorists throughout central Asian- but has anyone proven that these are Uygher from Xinjiang? Don't forget that every central Asian country has a substantial minority of each of the other ethnic groups and many of these could be Uyghur born outside of China.
Curzon
April 26, 2005
9:47 pm
Dave -- awesome contribution, thx. What kept you living in Xinjiang for two years?

MF -- yeah, but remember there are "12 Chinese citizens in Guantanamo captured in Afghanistan, I doubt they're anything but Uyghur, no?":http://www.style.org/campdelta/
praktike
April 26, 2005
10:09 pm
Ah, for some reason I though you were both Canadian. My error.
Curzon
April 26, 2005
10:18 pm
Yeah, we'll you're doing better than some readers who seem to think we're all the same person.
Simon World
April 27, 2005
3:00 am
Evening Linklets

Bill at By Dawn's Early Light thinks India is choosing America over Europe and France Josh at One Free Korea links to a Westerner's experience in the Pyongyang Soccer Riot Curzon at Coming Anarchy and Praktike at Liberals Against Terrorism both exce...
Rex Rufus
April 27, 2005
10:30 pm
Could some of the Chinese nationals at Gitmo be Hui (ethnic Chinese Muslims)?
Dave
April 28, 2005
12:06 pm
I looked over Kaplan's article again, and I can only think of three reasons Colonel Wilhelm would say that Uighur extremists are a big deal in Mongolia:

a) They really are
b) The US military doesn't know what it's talking about
c) The comment is intended for the Chinese government

And it might be all three. I've never heard any rumors the past two years of any attacks by anybody on anything except for the bus that blew up. There have been reports from outside Xinjiang of attacks and attempts on military targets within the province - not exactly something I would hear from my local nan seller. So maybe 1 is true and there are some attacks but on non-civilian targets and since this is China, information on attacks on military targets will be highly secret.

Then there's the possibility the US military doesn't know anything and Xinjiang is a black hole when it comes to intelligence. This is possible, like when my friend gave a paper on Xinjiang while doing his MA and had two US intelligence agents in the audience pepper him with questions. He had visited Xinjiang for about a week.

Then there's the possibility that since this is about US military involvement in a country bordering China, maybe the focus on Uighur extremists is more political - share a goal with China so as to maintain a more cooperative relationship with the PRC.

If there are any Uighur extremists, my view is that they must be pretty underground and learned a few things on keeping quiet and secure cells - because the PRC is not giving anybody much of a chance to organize anything independently in this province - Han or Uighur.
Curzon
April 28, 2005
12:15 pm
I think another issue is that if Uighur terrorists were to ever use western Mongolia as a safe haven -- not impossible being that its a wide open, unpopulated space -- China would be quick to use that as an excuse to unilaterally waltz in and clean whatever clocks necessary. Neither the US nor Mongolia want that to happen, hence his concern -- so I figure.

Thanks as always for the "on the ground" perspective.
Mutantfrog
April 28, 2005
1:35 pm
Rex: I think the chance of them being Hui is almost zero. The Hui are a minority in China that do have some problems, but they've lived in China proper ever since they existed (they are descended from a mix of Chinese that converted to Islam and immigrants from somewhere to the far west). I have a hunch that Uyghur terrorism is exaggerated by China, but there's no doubt that it exists to some degree, and seperatist sentiment, at least of the pie in the sky somewhere over the rainbow variety is widespread if not nearly universal.
Dave
April 28, 2005
4:16 pm
Oh yeah, I forgot: I agree with Mutantfrog about the Hui. It's just not their style.
nabetz
June 10, 2005
4:54 pm
the Atlantic article referenced can be found here: http://newmongols.blogspot.com/2005/05/reprint-from-atlantic-mongolianus.html

I have a fair number of friends/family in northern Mongolia and I've never heard them speak of a Uigher problem. One of them--rather well informed--didn't even realize that there were such a thing as Uighers in Mongolia. So, if the Uighers are going to be a source of terrorism in Mongolia, by all appearances the folks in Mongolia aren't that concerned about it. Which makes me wonder whether it's a real problem or not.