The 20th century may be a bad guide to the 21st, but it’s the only one we’ve got so we’re forced to use it. History doesn’t repeat itself, but the better we know history the less surprised we’re likely to be by what happens next.
Robert D. Kaplan, March 7, 2000
On 1 June 2001, Nepal’s crown prince, drunk and heartsick over parental disapproval of his fiancée, shot and killed the King and nine other members of the royal family before turning the gun on himself. (The details of the fratricide are all according to official government reports, with no independent confirmation. This may have been a coup for all we know.) The immediate royal family eliminated, the king’s younger brother Gyanendra was crowned head of state. His biggest challenge has been combatting the Maoist insurgency. Earlier this year he abolished the Parliament and took complete control of the government in what he said was an attempt to more effectively combat the rebels.
When will democracy be reinstated, ask a few hopeful optimists, as if that was the issue. Don’t count on democracy, not to mention peace or stability, in Nepal anytime soon. The best guide to the future of Nepal is the pattern of collapse and chaos in monarchies in undeveloped states. Consider the following three recent examples:
CAMBODIA
1969: King Sihanouk leaves for China to recieve medical care.
1970: The absent king is dethroned and the monarchy abolished in a military coup.
1975: Khmer Rouge capture the Cambodian capitol of Phnom Penh, marking the start of a genocidal cleansing that kills millions of civilians, approximately one in seven of the entire population.
AFGHANISTAN
1973: King Zahir Shad deposed by brother-in-law Daoud in bloodless coup.
1978: Daoud murdered in Marxist coup. Communist regime established.
1979: Communist regime faces collapse to tribal insurgency, and the Soviets invade to prevent the regime from collapsing. Two decades of chaos begin.
ETHIOPIA
1974: The Derg, set up to investigate mutiny in the army, depose King Haile Selassie.
1975: After attempts at a constitutional monarch fail, Selassie is imprisoned and later strangled.
1977: Two consecutive presidents are murdered before the Derg elect Mariam Mengistu as head of state. The Red Terror, collectivization, civil war, and a famine lead to the death of millions.
I could give other examples, even from the West — the Russian Revolution, the French Revolution — but the second half of the 20th century is fresh in our minds. Call it the Curzon Chaos Theorum. The progression from king to chaos in just half a decade goes through the following four steps:
1.) An anti-egalitarian yet stability-preserving monarchy is abolished in a coup.
2.) An authoritarian dictatorship is established, lasting only a few years as discontent grows.
3.) A peasant movement installs a totalitarian proletarian regime “in the name of the people.”
4.) A reign of terror begins.
Nepal is approaching the terminal stage of step two. Tourism has plummeted, taking the economy with it. The military have little discipline and terrorize civilians (Nepal now has the highest number of unexplained disappearances in the world). The free press has been abolished — soldiers who should be in the field are instead wielding black markers. And the Maoist rebels are gaining ground.
What about peace talks? Maoist leader “Prachanda” (his chosen, one-word name ala Pol-Pot and Stalin) has refused to meet with the government, promising instead to topple the monarchy and install a Maoist Communist Republic. Peace talks were tried in 2003 and were a disaster — the Maoists took the opportunity to regroup, rearm, and go back to killing civilians who dared to disagree with their doctrine as soon as it was convenient.
So, what should the US do? Had we been a little smarter a little earlier, we would have sent some Special Forces to train the army to be a more effective, humanitarian fighting force. Just read Kaplan’s recent articles (and upcoming book) where he discusses the positive effect a small regiment of intelligent soldiers can have in places like Niger, Mongolia, and Colombia. Alas, it’s probably too late for Nepal. Faced with a choice of backing a totalitarian King or Maoist rebels — which would have been a no-brainer during the Cold War — the US, Britain, and India have all criticized the King. Yet backing Gyanandra is the best choice of a lot of bad options, and certainly better than what Amnesty International is advocating:
Nepal’s human rights crisis has deepened since King Gyanendra declared a state of emergency and suspended fundamental rights on February 1. Hundreds of politicians, student leaders, journalists, and human rights defenders have been arrested. This is occurring against a backdrop of thousands of grave human rights violations. Please join Amnesty International in urging Secretary of State Rice to immediately suspend all U.S. security assistance to Nepal.
Human rights violations are deplorable, but the elephant in the room is a Maoist insurgency overrunning the countryside that is just as bad as the Khmer Rouge. We’re talking about illiterate peasants with no education adhering to a blind devotion to violent insurgency. They slaughter teachers and destroy schools, bomb bridges and roads, abduct children into their army, terrorize villages, and would do much worse give half a chance. Somehow Amnesty can’t muster the energy (or moral clarity) to include these unfortunate details in their press releases. Idealists wagging their finger and poo-pooing the abolition of democracy are being pennywise and pound foolish. To quote a Nepalese democracy activist:
If Nepal were a functioning democracy, the King’s take-over of the government would have been unthinkable. But in a calamitous circumstance of Nepal where Maoist atrocity and killing has risen dangerously, the most important priority is the restoration of peace and normalcy.
As it happens, the Bush Administration has managed, intentionally or otherwise, to follow Amnesty’s advice: all military aid to Nepal has been suspended since the February coup. The result? The army is running out of ammo and Gyanendra is now getting cozy with China and North Korea, two regimes who will sell him arms on the cheap and won’t give two shakes about his human rights record. So we’ve forfeited any influence we had over the King and have lost geopolitical ground. Thank you Amnesty — mission accomplished.
When chaos, collectivization, and genocide do arrive in Nepal, don’t expect foreign powers to do anything about it until it’s too late. No one has any interests at stake — sorry, KNF. That’s just the cold hard truth. The US and the EU will say things but won’t lift a finger until it’s all over. Eventually, China and/or India will invade ala Vietnam’s occupation of Cambodia in 1979 and only then will the reeducation camps, starvation brought on by collectivization, the torture chambers, the mass graves, the death squads, and the executions come to light. In the aftermath, Amnesty and their myopic ilk will find something about US foreign policy to criticize while solemnly saying “never again,” as if they mean it. Mark my words.
UPDATE! Despite being so despondent, I was overjoyed to read that New Delhi has lifted the arms embargo on Nepal and is working with the government. This editorial in the Times of India couldn’t say it better: “Talking to Nepal is good, now think out of the box.” Amen — we’re going to need it…
Anarchy is alive & well in the US, and worsening daily.
The US is also the worst human rights violater in the world, w/ the intentional killing of 3,500 unborn babies a DAY, 1.2M a year. But that’s alright, because we give mothers the right to kill!! All in the name of what? Convenience?
Pol Pot could never dream of what we’ve done, but could never equal.
*You’ve come a long way baby*.
cs
Thanks for sharing, Chip.
You asked “So, what should the US do?”
Why should the US do, or should the US have done, anything at all? We have a rather full plate right now, last time I checked, and we cannot solve the entire world’s problems.
I’m sorry that things are going to hell in Nepal. It’s a real problem, but it isn’t _our_ problem. (Likewise, Zimbabwe is a problem, but it isn’t _our_ problem.)
Incredible blog and great analysis of what’s happening in Nepal. Any chance India would invade immediately after the Maoists took over?
Eddie: It seems to me likeliest China will invade; India is more susceptible to “liberal” pressure (e.g. Amnesty Int’l) to butt out. China could care less, and knows (witness Tibet) that the carpers are toothless. India getting involved would no doubt bring headaches to New Delhi, but India’s ties to the West and its own democratic pressures would probably lead to the least-bad outcomes.
As to the timing, I have no idea — I suspect it depends heavily not just on events, but on how the world media covers events.
BTW: Curzon, your post is deeply depressing but rather persuasive.
Hmm…. I wonder what the Chinese think about this? Having this mess in Nepalturn into a spat between the Chinese and India would be… bad.
Nepal is our problem. Zimbabwe is our problem. They are however both secondary problems.
They are our problems because they contribute to the problems in South Asia and Africa which are primary battlefronts of ours in our global war. Yes, we can and should do little directly… But not every problem calls for military intervention.
In Nepal, Indian leadership would appear to be the ideal, and not all that difficult to implement, solution. There is nothing wrong with America speaking out in favor of such, and offering “guidance” to Nepal in the form of counter insurgency support and semi-favorable recognition of the new king in return for basic economic and social reforms. Yes the human rights questions are a problem, but that is why we should present Gyanendra with a way to meet international standards on such as part of our support. Even if he leads like Musharaf of Pakistan or Abdullah of Jordan it will be a good deal better than the Maoists. Better also that North Korea should have as few customers as possible.
We should not take on Nepal as a large obligation of our own, but this is a case where pennies of attention could yield one less mess in a sensitive region.
As for Zimbabwe, do we really want to see the cancer of the Mugabe leadership spread through that region? Don’t we already have enough problems in Africa and enough history to know that simply saying “It’s not or problem” just brings us more and worse to deal with down the road. I do not suggest a military intervention, but surely we can do better in our efforts to get South Africa to distance itself from the Mugabe regime and provide more active leadership towards a better alternative for the rest of Southern Africa…
Just as Saddam stood in the way of a broader shakeup in the Middle East, the carnage and repression in Central and Southern africa stand in the way of the growth of civil society throughout the continent. If there is any lesson we have learned from Sept. 11th and the war on the causes of global terror, it must be that it is not enough to simply strike back when we are attacked. We must root out the breeding grounds of the threats against us and must grow the one alternative to mass produced tyranny which has ever been truly succesful: Civil society, rule of law, transparent government, economic and personal freedom. Even the heights of the Himalayas and the breadbasket of Africa are no exception.
I wonder how realistic a Chinese intervention is. They didn’t hesitate to take Tibet and Xinjiang, what could keep them from intervening in Nepal if it gets to messy. Spill over conflicts have long been good enough reason for bordering countries to invade. How would their relations with India play into this and given the expanding US presence in Central Asia, would this drive them towards doing it. This would be an excellent subject for a follow up post.
I would wonder how the attention on their actions regarding Taiwain, North Korea, and Japan would influence their choice. They could decide that invading Nepal would be a favorable way of warning the Americans and Japanese over the other disputes while being able to claim they are just being good neighbors. Or maybe they would see their chances at action against Taiwan as a sort of one-shot deal, not to be wasted on a much less important Nepal. If China moves into Nepal, it may trigger Japan to speed up their own reconsideration of Article 9.
I’d rather not have an answer to the question of what the Chinese will do, and see the Indians and Americans pull the situation back from the brink instead.
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Well, why don’t you see misuse of guns by king’s army? How many more people will they kill? Do you think by killing people will eliminate the Maoists? Never. In fact, it is King who is trying to eliminate all his opponents? Do you have any sense of people who are living in country side? Those who are enjoying in kathmandu under protection of king’s army are the most primivilaged group in Nepal who not only ruled but also ruined the country. If not Maoists, other will emerge to clean the mess created by the king and maoists? It’s Nepal’s problem, then why you guys would like to sell arms to the King? Just close your shops.
” It’s Nepal’s problem, then why you guys would like to sell arms to the King? Just close your shops.”
Translation:” I want the Maoists to win but don’t really want to say that openly because that position doesn’t have much intellectual credibility – and it will hamper my disclaiming moral responsibility for Maoist atrocities in Nepal after the fact, should they win.”
On the other hand, republic nepal gets points for being on topic, unlike chip.
Thanks for all the comments — normally I’d have responded earlier, but it’s a busy time of year. In brief:
1.) Abortion is different. Whether legal, moral, or otherwise, it does not affect the general social order of a country. And as Mark said, that is totally off-topic.
2.) Will India premptively intervene? Unlikely, they have plenty of their own problems — Pakistan, insurgencies in the east, their own Maoists near the Nepal border. I read somewhere that if the Nepalese King fell, India’s own Maoists would flee to Nepal, temporarily solving one of India’s problems. So I doubt premption will occur — they’d have to be really convinced it was in their best interest to do so and have the political capital (i.e. it is a democracy…) to actually invade, which would be really tough to do until it was clear a Maoist regime in Nepal was a destabalizing threat to India.
3.) Will China premptively intervene? Nepal is a lot further from China than it is from India. Geologically/geographically it’s at the foot of the Tibetan plateau, but on the “wrong side” for China. And although the rebels are nominally Maoists, they aren’t pro-China. Helping the powers that be, in this case doing just what they’re doing and supplying arms to the king, is the best way for China to influence the southern Himalayas.
4.) This isn’t about solving the world’s problems – it’s about our national interest. Stopping China’s territorial expansion and geopolitical influence, keeping safe a popular destination for cosmopolitan tourists, and stopping instability from spreading into India, which we want a.) strong enough to counterbalance China, and b.) stable so we can outsource there for our economy. Additionally, you can make a moral argument.
5.) “Instability will not spread.” Yes it will. See similar examples from the past 30 years: Khmer Rouge Cambodia’s effect on Vietnam; Afghanistan’s effect on Pakistan and Tajikistan; why Clinton went into the Balkans; Ethiopia’s effect on the Sudan; Liberia’s effect on Sierra Leone, etc etc etc. Stalinist/fascist/authoritarian states ala the Soviet Union, the DPRK, Turkmenistan, et al control their borders very well. Peasant regimes do not.
6.) To the pro-Maoist Republic Nepal poster, that Nepali I blockquoted in the post shows how scary this situation is. He’s a democratic activist who was imprisoned by the king now based in the US… but he backs the king because the alternative is so scary.
As for the US’s interests summed up, J. Kende said it best. “Nepal is our problem. Zimbabwe is our problem. They are however both secondary problems.” Too true — hence I fear it will get really bad before anyone is moved to do something. At present, the ball is in India’s court. Don’t fumble!
Re: Chip
“The US is also the worst human rights violater in the world, w/ the intentional killing of 3,500 unborn babies a DAY, 1.2M a year.”
Sorry chip, whilst this is true, you do not have a proper sense of propotion. Even including Abortions, many countries out there do so many more, such as china and india.
Re: Curzon
Thanks for the great post. as much as many people think, Communism is not dead. Any significant understanding of communism must understand that it is meant to precede with a series of advances and withdrawals.
Regarding your comments on abortion however, I think you are missing something major
“1.) Abortion is different. Whether legal, moral, or otherwise, it does not affect the general social order of a country. And as Mark said, that is totally off-topic.”
Abortion has serious implications for the social order of a country and has led the collapse of and leading to the collapse of (with other factors) many major countries. Currently, japan, europe, Australia and many other nations have reproductive rates that are below replacement levels. Couple this with welfare states and yet get a terminally aging population that can’t sustain itself leading towards economic collapse. On the other side, we have India and china with their abortion policies leading towards a gross imbalance between the number of males to females (currently, there is 1.2 men for every woman in china), which can only adversely affect social order in the long term.
Abortion is quite possibly a marxist invention (Russia soon started abortions after communists came to power), with the stated marxist goal of destroying the family unit. Abortion certainly moves society and social order towards that goal.
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Why could the political parties not have gone for the Constituent Assembly idea early on?
I don’t think there’s much chance of China invading. Their invasion of Tibet and Xinjiang was based on ‘reclaiming’ territory that had been held by earlier Chinese states, and Nepal has never been Chinese territory in any sense whatsoever.
Update:
India to resume military aid “Ëœunconditionally’
No decision to resume arms supplies to Nepal: Indian PM
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As an Indian i can say it would be extremely foolish and unlikely the event of a Chinese invasion of Nepal. If it did. there would be World War 3 between India n China.
The problem with fighting the maoists is that a lot of their soldiers r innocent children n forced conscripts as well as gullible peasants.
Also the terrain is like the jungles of Nam and the mountains of afghanistan combined.
But yes the maoists must be bombed the shit out off n hopefully made to realise the futility of their revolution so that some sort of political solution can be eventually agreed upon.
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AI is being used for propoganda, Mr. T. Kumar Cief of AI in USA is organizing rally against the Nepal King with the guidence of RAW (Indian Intellicence Agency) and the money of Suraja Koirala one of the corrupt politician who fled Nepal with Millions of dollars. The King in Nepal has been able to bring back peace but these human right organization what nothing of it. They want more bloodshed so they can get more donetion in the neme of Nepal. If you donate to these organiztion please be extara careful where your money is going
Stop India from Exporting Terrorism to Nepal
India has been creating economical as well as political problems for Nepal for the last 58 years it has become Independent from the British. Nepal wanted to become trade free zone just like Singapore, it pressurized Nepal to abandon the idea. It wanted to turn to market economy 20 years ago but India forced it to have high custom tariff. India is building dams in the border area to flood Lumbini the birth place of Lord Budha so no tourist will visit this submerge area.
Nepal has to endure Indian arm twisting because it is landlocked so it has to use Indian port for sea cargo. It took ten years to convince India to allow Nepal to link India port with railway and another three years for the train to star service after completion of the railway link. Even after 15 years the railway link in not functioning properly. India has denied Nepal right of transits numerous times and dictating its terms on Nepal economy, as a result it is now one of the poorest country in the world. Now Indian foreign minister is threatening Nepal that it has leverage against Nepal which is noting but Nepal geographical compulsion to ship cargo through India.
India has been exporting terrorism to its neighbouring countries to keeps these countries in line to the Indian wishes. Terrorism as been the inbuilt nature of Indian politics. According to very credible numbers published by human-rights groups and the Punjab judiciary, the government of India has murdered more than 250,000 Sikhs since 1984, in excess of 200,000 Christians in Nagaland since 1947, almost 75,000 Kashmiri Muslims since 1988, and tens of thousands of Assamese, Tamils, Manipuris, Dalits, and others. In 1994, the US State Department reported that the Indian government paid out over 41,000 cash bounties to police officers for killing members of the Sikh minority.
An Indian Prime Minister was killed in office resulting from hobnobbing with terrorist. A former Prime Minister Mr. Rajib Ghandi who supported and armed one of the deadliest terrorist LITTE against Sri Lanka and as result was killed by them. In 1985 it armed and trained Ramraja P. Singh in India to conduct various terrorism activities in Nepal the result was several innocent civilian were killed.
After fourteen years of corruption and misrule by corrupt politicians King of Nepal has taken a popular step and assumed direct rule. The result has been positive. Whith the polular support of the general public peace in returing to the country. Kathmandu has seen four months without bombing or innocent people being killed. It this the first time in decade three months have gone without any kind of forced strikes in Kathmandu and other towns of the country. Gradually situation in becoming normal in the country side.
Normal Nepal has chance of being out of grip of India. So now India in supporting terrorist Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) to fight against the Nepal Army. It is repeating the same story it did with Sri Lanka. Recently several terrorist who have red corner notice from the Interpol have been reported holding meetings with Indian Intelligence Agency and Politicians. India is planning to arm and train terrorist to teach Nepal a lesson.
You can help Nepal in this hour of crisis, please sign and forwad below email to President George W. Bush and a copy to Vice President Richard Cheney. Their email address are
President George W. Bush: president@whitehouse.gov
Vice President Richard Cheney: vice.president@whitehouse.gov
Dear Mr. President George W. Bush
After fourteen years of corruption and misrule by corrupt politicians King of Nepal has taken a popular step and assumed direct rule. The result has been positive. With the popular support of the general public peace in returning to the country. Kathmandu has seen three months without bombing or innocent people being killed. It this the first time in diced three months have gone without any kind of forced strikes in Kathmandu and other towns of the country. Gradually situation in becoming normal in the country side.
Indian has being exporting terrorism to its neighbouring countries for decades. It trained and armed LITTE in Sri Lanka, MQM in Pakistan, Ramraja Singh in Nepal.
Now India is training and arming Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) a Terrorist organization notified by the US and Nepal. Several Maoist terrorist leaders who have red corner notice from the Interpol have been reported being with high ranking Indian Intelligence Agency officials and politicians. Huse amout of Indian corrency and India made autometic rifle have been recovered from these terrorist time to time in Nepal
Please declare India a rogue terrorist supporting state and put sanction on this country.
Sincerely yours
“Abortion is quite possibly a marxist invention…..”
Not everything is politically motivated Alan. Abortion is a nasty means of eliminating future competition, examples are abundant in the animal kingdom. Lions eat their male offspring for one. People aren’t far removed. We’re little better then screaming monkeys with clothes, guns and ICBM’s.
You guys are absolutely amazing, but don’t forget to factor in the real world when theorizing.
*”Government controlled areas with little Maoist activity”
*”Maoist controlled districts (known as “Maoland” or “liberated zones” in Maoist parlance)”
There are no Maoist controlled districts because the government still wields authority in the district headquarters of the so called Maoist controlled districts. That’s the only part of the districts where it has some sort of permanent control except at times when Maoists attack the district headquarters and take it for ONE NIGHT. This is what usually happens: The army goes for operation into a village–> The Maoists simply leave the place, thereby avoiding direct confrontation–> The army doesn’t find Maoists, kills civilians(basically shoots at civilians based on suspicion alone), the state radio broadcasts the body count saying that such and such number of terrorists had been killed in encounters. The army returns from the village, then the Maoists return to the village, and kill or force out from the village those who had been forced by the army to carry their backpacks and to show them the way, accusing them of collaborating with the army.
The king of nepal has failed, We do not need a king of nepal, he has tortured and hjailed 3000 people in teh past year, and has overtaklen teh maoists in terms of massacres, most of the deaths in teh war have occurred sinmce his takeover in 2001, the idea he should rule is like the idea he should be a brain doctor, he is just and imbacile, did you know that nepal is poorer than india and china in life expectancy in wealth aswell, and had more child labour, also did you know that it whad economic growth in teh 90s, but has none now, did you know teh king has now made alliances with china, and is importing tioenamen square tanks from china, and has allied with pakistanm’s al qadea ridden president, it has also started evicting dalai lama supporters, did you know that they are launching massive anti-ndia campaigns, purely as india is not supporting teh dicattorship, that teh king has for 50 years jailed oppoistsion politicains claiming tehy are corrupt, in other words, the claim all lower class people are corrupt, and upper class peopel are bnot, when he lives in apalace and tradiontlaly had cioncubnines and eunuchs nepal also has richer heads of stae than china nd nepal, despite being many tiems poorer, per perosn and in terms of having less people, did you know the king condemns amnetsy international as a communist stooge orghanistation, and jail oponents, that the war has just got worse since the coups, and that he is a closwe friend of teh king is a perobnal freind of the king of cambodia, of teh 1970s, did you know it was noty just pol pot trhat caused teh cambodian genocide that also teh king of cambodia’s armies led a third of cam,biodia, at teh time, abnd were killing, and evictinmg people, and that he was teh head of state under pol pot, and when vietnam,’s communists evicted their regime in the late 70, that teh king then said pol pot should be imposed as leader of cambodia, with us help, reagan then gave funds to pol pot and king sin, to attack teh regime, did you know that ethioopia had a famine od a million dead in 1972, and still had slavery, that afghanistan had a famine of 200,000 deaths, the same year these caused the oustings, but that the reaosn why so many died in teh late 70s and early 80s was as the usa and ussr were fighting a war there, and that peace only came when pro -democarcy regimes tookover, in afghanistan in 2001, and ethiopia in 1991, ansd in cambodia in 1997 when communist tookover there, nepal needs teh west to impose a democarcy in nepal by supporting teh people against teh king, as he is a murderer and jailer, andtorturer,
the king is mad and deranged, any republican who supports the king is a mad spy. How can we accept monatchy, When monarchy has killed so many, It caused world war one the flu epidemic which killed 40million people, it caused the tsar of russia, who killed 2million people in 1900-18, it caused emperor hirohito who killed 27million in Asia, and it caused king leopold who killed 10million in Africa, it caused saudi arabiam and bin laden, it caused the ethiopian famine of 1972 which killed a million, it caused pol pot, by the king putting him in power, it caused the royalist hitler (who cried on the resignation of the kaiser, and was fully supported by him) to cause 40 million dead in world war two, it caused the ottoman sultan to kill 2 million armenians, it caused so much evil and despair, and you love that, as you area satan
China’s “reclaiming” of Xinjiang and Tibet was only moving these territories from a state of temporary autonomy (because during the civil war the central government couldn’t allocate resources to govern them). In the case of Tibet, it was a Chinese territory for 700 years, then had temporary autonomy during the civil war. I don’t think Americans have any concept of what 700 years is.
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The king certainly does not sound like a ‘nice guy,’ that’s for sure, but those of you posters who think you’ll be getting something better with a Maoist government are in lala land. If they do take over, I will expect that mass killings, starvation, reeducation camps, gulags and all the other goodies typically served up by communists will be in used to full effect. And you won’t be able to blame the US for it.
The parties of Nepal are the main culprits to bring this situation. They are the one responsible for
- bringing corruption in Nepal
- mismanaging the country
- submitting democracy to the king
- brininging civil war
- making hotchpotch decision for the power
If they continue the same act they will bring more civil war in the country. The king’s move is not acceptable in the 21st century but they made compell to king to take that step as being the head of state. Atleast now maoist understood that they couldnot win the government and tired of fighting. That is why they came to some agreement and looking for safe landing. But to give everything to them means they will bring another chaos in the country. So all three should be equally powerful in the next step atleast for some years so that no one will make the mistakes.
Indian Intelligence Agency – RAW using Media for Propaganda
Below is the news in Indian newspapers reposted by Sudeshna Sarkar of IANS news agency. Sudeshna Sarkar is RAW agent stationed in Nepal. RAW is an Indian Intelligence Agency. It was the agency used by Indian to fund and train Tamil terrorist in Sri lanka, and also terrorist in Northwest frontier in Pakistan. This RAW is funding and training Nepalese Moist terrorist also. They have been protecting leaders of the terrorist in their SAFE HOUSE in New Delhi.
Nepal has been largely successful in combating the terrorist after the King imposed direct rule and got ride of corrupt politicians. Indian are not happy and supporting the terrorist so they will have their influence in Nepal.
To disseminate propaganda against Nepal, the RAW agent in Nepal Sudeshna Karkar first publishes story in Nepalese “Jana Astha” infamous weekly paper, and carries that story in IANS news agency and this story is carried by other Indian news papers. “Jana Astha” is publish by Mr. Uttam Shrestha, Mr. Shrestha was previously arrested for black mailing a starlet. He had threatened her that if she did not pay million rupee he will publish her nude picture in his paper. This starlet was unable to pay his huge amount and committed suicide after this paper published her nude picture. Now the RAW is using this infamous weekly for the propaganda, below is the example:
Nepal monarchy’s secret plan to undermine opposition
By Sudeshna Sarkar, Kathmandu: Nepal’s royal family, forced to hand over power to a democratic government after a mass movement for people’s rights in 1990, has been pursuing a secret plan to snuff out the opposition parties and regain control, a media report said Wednesday.
“Jana Astha”, a popular Nepali weekly with sources in the army and the palace, said that a group of royalists had helped draw up the secret plan to set the parliamentary parties against one another and impose active rule by the king once again.
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Now the question is, does anybody care if Nepal is declared Maoist state? The reality is, it already is. But the power that may be seem to overlook the fact that “democracy” even in the name sake is good enough. Revisit Maoist theory- they have done everything by the book, and countries like US, defender of Freedom and liberty, have done the unthinkable i.e., silently supported the maoist calculated takeover by denying the required support (arms & moral). Surprisingly, Ambassodor even predicted that “maoist takeover” beforehand. From the look of it, it looks by design but the question at what cost and why the double standard.
Listening to FM radios and reading newspaper does illustrate that Nepal is heading for a secterian divide- they openly state that certain section of certain caste should be eliminated. Call it whatever, the danger of invasion by India and China is secondary, the disintegration of a nation is already showing cracks.
Nepal problem is Nepal problem but it has been crystal clear now that all the problems are created, instigated, and funded by the northern neighbor with a nod from U.S. of A. Speak of logic, I see non.
Speak of coming anarchy- its already here in Nepal. Mob rule is law of the land, there is no place for speaking your mind or having any second opinion or disagreements. Those who speak shall receive the wrath of burning tires, cars on fire, and wonton vandalism. Who can stop them, they are doing all this in the name of “people’s movement.” So let it be.
Politicians are kowtowing to Maoist, killer of Inspector General of Armed Police and his wife are set free- Maoist are declared martyrs and people killed by Maoist are handcuffed and jailed. This is sign of time to come. To all Nepali who believe in “absolute Democracy” your time has come. Light, sound and action.
Notice to India and US- duality nature in your foreign policy is shameful. Instead of containing and defeating Maoist- their influence is spreading even in India and beyond (visit RIM website to understand this fully). And also the historical precedent, the one in Russian ( 1917) Bolsheviks revolution does quite illustrate what communist mean by Constitutional Assembly.
An old adage ” prevention is better than cure” policy must be applied to save not only Nepal but this whole Sub Continent from the menace of Communism. If this calls for hard action then it must be taken. Lets not only preach about social contract but also help it to defend itself from the insidious rot that is Maoism, social disorder and lack of rule of law in the name of People’s movement.
Looks like unholy alliance of Seven party and the Maoist real intention was just to strip His Majesty’s privileges, nothing more than that. I for one believe that Monarchy is necessary for Nepal, sandwiched between two giants, India and China, the kingdom provides identity and independence, though it might look like a thin veneer.
But what I perceive is this- the class of people, Brahmins, are in majority and are elites in Seven parties as well as in Maoist outfit. They have made a mission to ape India, page by page. They are mostly half educated (drop outs) in India with strong Indian influence from chewing pan to wearing an Indian dress- an affront to normal Nepali. They see this uprising in the context of Gandhi and Nehru fight against the British Raj- now the villain is the King.
In order to vilify they have left no stone unturned but there is uneasy calm in the city. Everyone knows that Maoist have entered the city with arms and rogues, political parties claim they head the government but there is no sight of government or the rule of law- Maoist are extorting, industries are shutting up shops, and brazen looting are taking place- but the city is calm. The fight that this misalliance undertook to make King humble was done but after this they have no strategy to move further. Its a dead-end. The infighting for portfolio, department, and post is a crusade among them, shortly to be blind-sighted by Maoist takeover. I say this because 7 party are not in position to govern. It is too fractured and weak from within to move ahead- they have achieved this far with a help from the Maoist which is undeniable. And Maoist will extract a heavy price- which is Prime Ministership from these goons. Now, the Maoist are calling for Interim government and scrapping of reinstated assembly, the reason is simple to understand. They want to join government as a coalition member, dictate terms and conditions for constitutional assembly(farce) without the handover of arms (unconditional), seek separate budget allocation for Maoist activities, from feeding their rebels to going for election and insidiously control all the security agencies from Royal Nepal Army, Police, Intelligence to armed police force- and declare Nepal as one party communist state. This is the end game they are after and is quiet obvious to all but the 7 party are still floating in euphoria of humbling a Monarch.
Humbling a Monarch is at a cost that might prove dearly in the long run. The way the things are even if the Maoist take over (God forbid), Nepal will degenerate into a state that sponsors and exports terrorism, radicalism and extremism. Due to it geographical positioning- this placer can be a place where all the outcasts- from Taliban, Al Qaeda, to Kashmiri and Tibetan separatist movement can call it home. Who will be there to stop them, brother in-arms -Maoist? It is quite a situation where if I was a betting man, I would put my money in WORSE rather than bad.
To all the nation that have played a part in Nepal, directly or indirectly assisted in creating this situation, do be advised it has just begun, be prepared when shit hits the fan.
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To be honest – if the king had, after parliament was dissolved by then Prime Minster (there is misconception that king usurped power, it is not the case), under the article of constitution, I believe Clause 127- he should have acted to move against Maoist in vigorous manner but he sat in the fence. Fearing backlash from the international community. I think his half hearted approach was the reason for the downfall.
People speak of transgressions- sure there was. How can a state give free rein to publishing houses who were actively pursuing agenda set by Maoist (tagged terrorist), how can a state sit idle when a bus load of people were blown up, with sorry and mistake as consolation by the Maoist. In the name of Democracy, the nitwits actually made a way for Maoist to be credible, not surprising that Maoist are now asking Government to provide funds for them in order to feed their militia. They even term forced extortion as ” a necessity.” The papers during King’s rule had a field day, no one was stopping them. They even claimed they can self regulate and self impose- even a proposed Code of Conduct was written as censorship. Basically, there is dearth of Ethics and code of conduct. An actress killed herself after one paper published a nude picture of hers- a simple blackmail.
Now, how can democracy be exercised when there is total mayhem and is defined according to ones need and taste. The fundamentals are not there, so lunatic fringe are now empowered to abuse it, dictate it, and are killing the very aspiration of democracy. So much for King’s transgression. Welcome to Nepal- where what you see is, is not what you get.
This is not an attempt to defend the transgression but to look at it in a logical manner. The fear is what’s next? An authoritarian one party rule where “all are equal but some are more equal” apply in all sectors and activities of the society. I see this very much happening, I have no faith in Maoism or anything that even smells like communist. They say one and do another. And I also believe in what I have stated before, they survive only because of reign of terror- not because of mandate or an election.
Points boils down to simply this- do we choose devil or the deep blue sea. I say sea just for the fact at least there is a possibility we can swim or build a raft, this will not apply with the devil.
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