Entry details

Curzon
Author

Curzon

Date

April 8th, 2005

Tags

, ,

Comments

6 Comments so far.
Add yours.

The New Russia?

From Eurasianet: April 7-8: High-level meeting in Moscow of group for forming Single Economic Space (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine)

The blue is Russia; the green states are the possible members of the SES; and combine the red states with the rest and it forms the former Soviet Union.

The Baltic States are a lost cause. Georgia has been pulled into the US sphere. Central Asia is still up for grabs. Is the Ukraine too late? Geographically, this looks like a more logical Russia. And with its declining population, Belarus and Ukraine might be Russia’s only hope for a sound future.

Comments to this entry

Dave Schuler
April 8, 2005
2:08 pm
Can Russia hold onto its current territory? Ethnic Chinese populations in the current Russian far east are rising fast.
Curzon
April 8, 2005
2:19 pm
Very, very good point. That also explains why Russia-Japan relations are finally warming up and Russia is shipping Siberian oil to Japan -- Moscow wants Tokyo's backing should the Chinese genuinely intervene.
Mutantfrog
April 8, 2005
3:38 pm
I think it's pretty clear that Ukraine is realigning itself with the West, away from Russia. Obviously they aren't cutting ties with Russia either, but they're working hard to break away from a client state model. See the recent news "Export-Import Banks of the United States and Ukraine Sign Agreements to Facilitate U.S. Exports to Ukraine"
Ukraine is now also lobbying for a place in the WTO, and I think Bush has said that he'll back them for it.
Nathan
April 8, 2005
7:35 pm
Ukraine started getting into this deal years ago and I have to wonder how interested they still are in it. And it seems like these negotiations have been going on forever and not getting anywhere. Considering that Kazakhstan is doing a stupendously swell job of balancing Russia, China, and US economic interests, I can't seem them letting a free trade agreement/currency union curtail their sovereignty.

Personally, the SES strikes me as a way for Russia to give domination of its neighbors a sheen of legitimacy. I seem to remember Ukraine and Kazakhstan ending up as add-ons to a deal originally agreed on with Belarus.
Dan
April 9, 2005
10:04 pm
This talk is a reminder of a happier time for Russia. Putin has been unable to maintain Yeltsin's system of allies. Ukraine is now pro-Western, there are American bases in Former Soviet Central Asia Turkestan, Belarus has been drifting away from Russia (he dictator liked Yelstin more), and even the Moldovan Communist Party is pro-American.

Talk costs nobody anything, but wastes Russia's time.
One Eyed Cat
April 9, 2005
11:10 pm
Ukraine will not be a part of the SES. Foreign Minister Tarasyuk has declared both the CIS and SES to be virtually useless. The ultimate aspiration is to join the EU. Ukraine will give lip service to Russian projects, but the orientation is entirely pro-western now. I predict they'll be in NATO and the WTO in the next few years.

OEC