Real Declarations of Independence

It’s one thing for the former satellites and Soviet republics to be nominally independent. But for them to be truly free of Russian influence is something entirely separate. Nominally independent states such as Tajikistan and Belarus still have Russian troops on their soil and are powerless to get them out. Georgia continues to fight for real political independence since 1991, but the Russian military still keeps its bases on Georgian to preserve “territorial intergrity” and frequently meddles in domestic affairs. Others have found more success: the Baltic Three liberalized their economies and jumped into the EU with barely a hickup, and Ukraine’s recent election was all over the international news.

Now, two key former Soviet satellites are shedding the last vestiges of dependence on Russia with energy independence. Poland, although now an EU state, relies on Russian oil imports to function. A proposed pipeline from Ukraine could change that. According to Stratfor, Ukraine is offering to extend a pipeline into eastern Europe, allowing Black Sea imports to reach eastern Europe. Where will this oil come from? Former Soviet Republics Kazakhstan and Georgia, who now have the means to get their crude on to the world supply of oil and provide their economy with some much-needed influxes of cash.

So Russia’s sphere of influence will probably continue to shrink. Combined with a declining economy, a thining population, a rotten military, and the collapse of the Soviet borders, more of the former satellites will find real independence. Is this a good thing? Ukraine and Georgia are bound to benefit. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Moldova, and Armenia will probably get better too. But I don’t see how Russia can be anything else that a big, nasty black hole in the center of Eurasia for a long time to come.

(Map from Stratfor.com)