Over the past month I read the two following books:
Now it’s time for my hard-hitting review as the optimistic futurist takes on the old school hardened analyst in a battle that *decides the fate of our world!*
Let me first tackle PNM: This book is a _must read_ for anyone interested in current events. This is some of the best “thinking outside of the box” that I have seen in a while. Barnett’s theory of the Gap and the Core really makes sense, and he takes it one step further with his suggestion that rules change depending on which group you are in. “Disconnectedness defines danger” is an eloquent and well-structured argument that fleshes out the truly underlying attributes of the problematic theory that “democracies don’t war with one another.” The few complaints I have about this book, include the following: I found it far too repetitive, you could probably shave off about 50 pages; and it reads like a repackaged Manifest Destiny. This book is definitely written for Americans. I agree with his point that the US contains the “source code” for liberal democracies, but I felt that he over-emphasized this, disregarding the numerous fully functional alternative “code branches” out there, and their ability to contribute to “a future worth building.”
Now onto America’s Secret War. George Friedman, the founder of “Stratfor”:http://www.stratfor.com, makes an analysis of the US war on terror starting prior to the 9/11 attacks and ending with Abu Ghraib. The interesting thing about this book is Friedman’s ability to guide the reader through complex geopolitics; it is almost like reading a good Clancy novel. Each event is lined up precisely with an accompanying logical explanation and analysis. Unfortunately with the lack of any references it all seems like a well-constructed fairy tale, told in 20/20 Hindsight-o-vision. If only he provided footnotes… Friedman is a great analyst but his “order of battle analysis” skills are not on par with true historians like Sir John Keegan. In any case this book is a great lesson in geopolitical analysis and sure gets you looking at events with a different lense. Although a must read for die hard armchair cold-warriors and geopoliphiles alike, I wouldn’t recommend it to “regular folk” like I would PNM.
These two books turned out to be on very different topics (future vs. the past), and are written by very different authors (new school vs. old school), but I was glad that I read them in close succession. One of the niggles of PNM is that it feels like he is calling for all Core nations to hold hands and sing from the same page together in shrinking the Gap. This, in my realist upbringing, is an impossibility, comrade. But while reading Friedman’s concise description of the geopolitical landscape, with alliances being formed and broken depending on the task, I realized the profundity of Barnett’s grand strategy. For all his idealism of ending war in our world, Barnett wasn’t necessarily saying that we all had to work together _all_ the time, he does leave room for variances in foreign policy. His is truly a _grand strategy_, leaving the day-today geopolitics to guys like Friedman.
That is my short take on these books. So what is the fate of our world? Well… not necessarily the same as it has always been. But in the meantime there will be that familiar struggle…
Nice review. I shall reading PNM in the coming months. Thomas Barnett wrote an interesting article in this month’s issue of Wired (02/05). In the article, he called for a “WTO-like” entity consisting of ‘core’ nations (membership is by invitation only) to establish new rules for waging the war on terror. Basically he pointed out that the Geneva conventions are irrelevant for non-state combatants and these new rules should be made by this newly formed organization. He also added a sly remark about how this task should NOT be left to the UN, an int’l legislative body where Libya can chair the Commission on Human Rights (!).
I love Barnett, but sometimes the man can be over-the-top optimistic. All his theories of a happy world sound very nice, but face it: there are REAL problems in the coming years. The middle classes in the developed world will be economically squeezed with job export and outsourcing to places like India, a dropping birth rate in many developed countries will put pressure on social welfare services, the population is on the rise in unstable places like Indonesia, the DRC, Pakistan, and Bangladesh (all of which will be in the top 10 most populous countries by 2030), a crunch on natural and fossil fule resources… good God, it’s too depressing to even think about.
Face it, Barnett: COMING ANARCHY.
Your take on these too books fits well with mine. Barnett has set up a great framework and lexicon for discussion, and has flipped the frame around to focus on the positive side of things, perhaps too positive. Friedman’s lack of sources drove me up the wall. I think he made a few things up, frankly. I can’t believe that Stratfor has all kinds of sources that could tell them what “the US” and “the Saudis” were thinking at any given point in time. International actors aren’t monolithic like that.
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