Oh Koizumi, I love you so much with your permed lion’s mane, your friendship with Dubya, how you stick it to China and the rest of your East Asian neighbors. But stop confusing me with these mixed messages. Is Japan remilitarizing or not?
Seriously. All this fuss about Japan changing its constitution, getting China and the Koreas into a hissy fit, Stratfor reporting major restructing with the US military in Japan to work closely with Japan — I thought there was a major buildup taking place. Now the (center-left) Asahi Shinbun is reporting that cuts have been going on for years.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on Thursday said defense spending for next fiscal year would be reduced, marking the third annual cut in a row.
Koizumi told an Upper House audit committee: “There is no sacred ground concerning defense budgets. I have instructed that the defense budget for next fiscal year be kept under this year’s level.”
Compare that with a Stratfor article from September 2004:
+ On Aug. 23, U.S. and Japanese defense officials said the two countries were exploring the possibility of expanding joint basing within Japan. Having U.S. and Japanese troops on the same facilities formalizes the command relationship between them and allows for the kind of cooperation and interoperability that would be needed in actual military operations.
+ On Aug. 31, defense officials requested a 1.2 percent increase in overall defense spending. The request included 35 percent boosts to missile defense and counterterrorism spending — both keys to U.S. military strategy.
+ On Sept. 1, the Japanese Defense Agency announced cooperation with the U.S. military in improving missile-detection and information processing capabilities for the Aegis missile. The agency requested $50 million for the project.
So, did Defense not get their requested increases? Is it being shifted elsewhere? What’s happening with missile defense? Inquiring minds want to know.
My understanding of the issue is that defense spending remains at a more or less fixed percentage of GDP. Here are total government defense outlays from 1994 through 2002 (sorry its a bit sloppy — I don’t know how to make tables in this comments section). The first row of numbers is indicated in trillions of yen, and the second row is defence outlays as a percentage of GDP. The latter have been slightly rounded, but the point should be clear enough.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
3.86 3.91 3.98 4.06 4.11 4.13 4.16 4.27 4.28
0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Unfortunately, I don’t have the numbers for FY03 and FY04, but if the _Asahi_ is correct, then I suspect they would fall from 4.28 trillion, reflecting what Koizumi said. I’m sure a little searching on the net would confirm this.
A few things I’ve read about disputes between MOF and JDA, as well an article from the current _Economist_, have led me to believe that any changes in defense spending would be reflected in the distribution of the defence budget, and not necessarily on the size. According to the _Economist_:
_The government will also highlight the need for commando units and other flexible forces, which can respond to any terrorist threats that arise. Because Japan limits its defence budget to 1% of GDP, these sorts of changes will probably be paid for with cuts in tanks, conventional troops and other assets that were intended to slow down putative Soviet attackers…_
Considering the figures posted above, this seems to make sense. The total defense budget does vary in real terms, but stays almost constant as a percentage of total outlays.
So, if the _Asahi_ reports Koizumi as saying that defense spending is going to be cut, that may well be true (again, only in real terms), but a falling defense budget doesn’t preclude a “build-up” in terms of shifting funds to missile defense or other areas. Total spending could fall but it seems that what matters here is the composition of the remaining budget.
Politically, I would guess that Koizumi is playing a little CYA but going public and saying that he’s cutting defense spending. As far as the budget increase requests mentioned in your post, I would just write them off as soon-to-be rejected requests for more money. .
Good lord, count on you to set me straight with the Japan stats! That comment was phenomenal, thanks.